Abstracts

 

V.G. Andreyev

Improvement of Factor Analysis of Determined Two-Factor Multiplicative Economic Indicators

Volumetric economic indexes calculated by involving two various factors are widely used in the statistical economic analysis. The two-factor models lay the basis for constructing statistical indexes, particularly aggregated ones. A calculation method depends on the choice of methodology to measure the impact of factors on an index, which entails varying approaches to the calculations.

The above mentioned issues are widely discussed in the literature devoted to statistical analysis. The discussions are, however, focused on the situations when all the factors have an increasing trend, with decreasing trends being overlooked. The article aims to fill this gap by reviewing possible discrepancies when calculating the impact of a factor change on the statistical index value when the factors have alternative trends.

Based on the above goal, the article contains analysis of the deficiencies found in the existing two-factor analysis of volumetric economic models, and offers possible methods for their elimination.

The article is quite valuable considering the need to improve the existing statistical approaches to analysis of volumetric economic models. It contributes to analytical, scientific and practical issues related with two-factor models. These models lay the basis for constructing statistical indices that determine methodology for calculating the impact of single factors; in fact, they provide the basis for choice of the method of successive substitutions when calculating the impact of a factor on the index value. In a two-factor model, the impact of each single factor on the total result is calculated by eliminating or calculating the impact of each factor considering the change of both factors.

Possible ways to improve the above mentioned calculations are discussed; formulas and graphic presentations of the factors that influence the trend of economic indexes are given. Methods to eliminate double counting of the impact from both factors in a two-factor model are shown. Specifics of the algorithms (formulas) and the derived results are highlighted. The theoretical statements are supported by calculations for possible options of change in factor indicators. The usefulness of the proposed algorithms in academic studies, applied scientific analysis and education is shown.

Key words: index, two-factor models, index value, index trend, result of factor-driven index change.

 

V. V. Tarasova

Graphical Method for the Study of the Ecological State of the Environment

The article considers scientific grounds of theoretical and applied issues related to methodology and construction of statistical charts and their use in various statistical methods of processing and analyzing environmental and economic information. It is stressed that the graphic method is a special method of visual presentation of statistical data and images using geometric symbols, for generalization and analysis. The images are especially useful in preparing various presentations and making reports. A comprehensive and in-depth analysis of statistics allows for using various special techniques, with graphics taking an important place.

There are many types of graphs, classified by purpose, form of graphic image and method of construction. Moreover, each graph should perfectly match the content and the logical nature of the phenomena depicted, be artistically shaped, with graphic images painted in different colors. Due to its properties, graphical method is an important tool for interpretation and analysis of statistics, sometimes being the only and indispensable way of their generalization and understanding. Graphic images are also important in popularization of statistics.

The article aims to demonstrate capabilities of different types of graphic images in studying ecological processes. It is stressed that construction of statistical graphs that would be in best correspondence with the nature and content of the data depicted and the task to be fulfilled is a time-consuming work that would often require making several versions. It is a laborious process that requires significant costs, hard work, long time, great accuracy and diligence.

The article contains examples of constructing and analyzing dotted, structural column and combined multicolumn diagrams. When studying the ecological condition of the environment, to illustrate and generalize the ecological situations at each stage, various kinds of diagrams are used: dotted ones – at the initial stage, in assessing the overall pollution of environment, structural ones – to characterize the composition of environmentally hazardous enterprises and the density of their territorial distribution; complex, coupled and combined, multi columnal – in analyzing the pollution of certain natural areas, the concentration of pollutants in the aquatic environment of various river basins in Ukraine. Proposals are given on use of this article as not only as a visual manual, but as a guide that would be helpful to those extensively using graphics in their professional work.

Key words: graphic method, graphic presentation, diagram, dotted diagram, column diagram, ecological condition of environment.

 

Ye. Ye. Sharilova

Assessment and Analysis of Age Structure of the Population in the Republic of Belarus by “Quadrangle of Oldness” Method

The article contains results of the analysis of age structure of the population of the Republic of Belarus, with assessment of cross-group variations in age structures of selected socio-demographic groups, by use of “quadrangle of oldness” method of graphic analysis.

The stable negative dynamics in youthfulness measures of Byelorussian population shows no tendency to demographic rejuvenation, while the significant variations in selected measures of oldness in 1990–2012 do not allow for argumentative conclusions about the process of demographic aging. In view of this, use of the author's method for graphic analysis allows to prove or disprove the existence of ageing tendency of Byelorussian population in various time intervals of 1990–2012.

Realization of the first phase of the method involves selection of four basic sets of statistical values. To justify the selection, the content of age structure indicators were considered, analytical review of literature sources was made, and the values of modified correlation coefficient were calculated. As a result, the four basic sets of indicators were identified: coefficient of oldness, coefficient of the ratio of generations, proportion of demographic burden by old people in the total population burden, and average age of the population.

“Quads of oldness” of Byelorussian population for 1990, 2002, 2006 and 2012 were built within the period of 1990-2012. The analysis of graphic data allows for the following conclusions: (i) the tendency to demographic aging of Byelorussian population is clearly shown in 1990–2012 and in the intervals between 1990 and 2002, 1990 and 2006; (ii) the arrangement of “rectangles of oldness” in 2002, 2006 and 2012 does not allow for unambiguous conclusions about the evolution of age structure in the intervals between these years. The ageing tendency could be confirmed by calculating the levels of integral coefficient of ageing.

The method of “quads of oldness” can be used to study variations between age structures of population groups, which requires a readjustment of its algorithm. The “quads of oldness” for 1990 and 2012 were built to measure cross-group variations in the age structures of male and female populations, and urban and rural residents of the Republic of Belarus. It allowed for the following conclusions: (i) age structures of male and female populations show that female population is older than the male population; similar variations are found between age structures of rural and urban residents (rural residents are older that urban ones); these regularities were observed in 1990 and 2012; (ii) decreasing measures of variation in the oldness of male and female populations, and rural and urban populations, observed in 1990–2012, entailed negative dynamics of integral coefficients of cross-group variation.

Basically, the method of “quads of oldness (youthfulness)” offers an effective statistical tool for understanding regularities in age structure of the population and measuring levels and dynamics of cross-group variations, for demographic analysis purposes.

Key words: method of graphical analysis, age structure of the population, demographic ageing, “quadrangles of oldness”, cross-group variation.

 

Yu. G. Goryaschenko

Information Analysis Component in the System for Statistical Studies of Regional Development

Improvement of the framework for information analysis for purposes of socio-economic development in Ukrainian regions has become even more urgent in times of recovery from global financial crisis, because information is an important strategic resource, enabling to enhance the efficiency of regional administrative offices and the competitiveness of local business entities.

Critical reviews of scientific studies devoted to socio-economic development at regional level, made through analyses of the new role of knowledge, informatization and statistical studies, are contained in many works written by Ukrainian and foreign researchers. Yet, given plenty of theoretical and applied studies in the field, published in Ukraine and abroad, many theoretical, methodological and practical aspects found therein look controversial. As found from the literature review made by the author, researchers’ interest in socio-economic development in regions, especially in the information analysis framework, confirms the foremost importance of statistical information in the contemporary world. However, there are no effective methods for evaluating the scope of information available for purposes of socio-economic development in regions, which, when used, would be capable to push up practical steps towards the sustained development at country level.

The article is focused on constructing a theoretical framework that would enable to extend the coverage of analytical information for purposes of studies of socio-economic development at regional level. In particular, methodological approaches to constructing the set of indicators to measure the socio-economic development in regions are analyzed. An aggregate index is proposed, the index of information support, which measures the regional environment in information and socio-economic terms; it is a complex synthetic category and a component of the life quality indicator.

Key words: regional development, information analysis framework, statistical indexes, methodology, estimation.

 

D. D. Aystrakhanov, D. V. Maximenko

Training of Skilled Workforce: A Multifactor Model

In the current socio-economic conditions, Ukraine needs an integrated system for continuous professional education complying with national interests and global economic trends, to provide training of skilled workforce and junior professionals capable of lifelong learning, professional up-grading and, if necessary, change of profession. These tasks are a responsibility of the system for vocational education. However, the number of trained professional workforce has reduced in Ukraine in the recent years, due to many objective and subjective circumstances. The main factors behind reduced numbers of skilled workforce have economic and demographic origin.

The quantitative impact of economic and other factors on the number of workforce trained in the public vocational education system is derived on the basis of the Ukrainian official statistical data for 2003–2010. The total number of factors taken for analysis is 28; they are consolidated budget of Ukraine, average nominal wages, unemployment rate, number of resident population, producer price index in the industry, gross domestic product, number of vocational schools etc. Of these, 12 most significant factors were selected by constructing scattering charts and calculating correlation coefficients.

A multifactor linear regression model for trained skilled workforce is built and analyzed, with economic interpretation of produced results.

Key words: econometric models, economic analysis, statistics, linear regression, vocational education, number of graduates.

 

A. V. Sidorova, M. A. Kukhenna

Measurement of Monopolization at Consumer Crediting Market in Ukraine

The crediting process in Ukraine has faced numerous problems. It's not just about improving crediting technologies, expanding the types of crediting services, but also about developing new concepts enabling banks to improve the quality of relations with customers. After the deep transformation crisis experienced by Ukraine, economic recovering proved to be quicker in the sectors with well established competition-based relations. Competition can be an essential factor for sustained economic growth in the period of recovering from the global financial and economic crisis.

Also, development of consumer crediting in Ukrainian banks requires the use of new effective approaches to its regulation. One approach is to measure market monopolization and competition by the Herfindahl – Hirschman index.

The purpose of this study is to develop a conceptual approach to measurement of competition and monopolization at the domestic market of consumer crediting by banks, by use of the Herfindahl – Hirschman index.

The article deals with the process of establishing the domestic consumer crediting market, its inherent features and basic laws of functioning. Methodologies offered by domestic and foreign economists to measure market competition and monopolization are analyzed. Detailed consideration is given to application of an indicator of concentration, Herfindahl – Hirschman index, to measure competition and monopolization at various types of markets: commodity market, insurance market, financial services market.

Based on the method used by the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine to derive monopolistic (dominant) position of business entities at the market, and on the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of Economic Competition”, the authors suggest that the limits of Herfindahl – Hirschman Index other than the boundaries of commercial and insurance markets should be adopted for measuring competition and monopolization of the domestic consumer crediting market. The level of monopolization at the consumer crediting market in Ukraine is estimated by Herfindahl – Hirschman index for all the existing banks and the largest banks by assets.

Factors underpinning the refusal of selected domestic banks from consumer crediting services, including Public Joint Stock Company “Raiffeisen Bank Aval” (Austria) and Public Joint Stock Company “UkrSibbank” (France), are studied.

To improve regulation and monitoring of the domestic market of bank consumer credits, it is recommended to stimulate consolidation of the domestic bank capital, which will expand banking business in Ukraine, enlarge the domestic banking system and increase its capitalization.

Key words: crediting, consumer credit, consumer crediting bank market, measure of competition, monopolism, Herfindah – Hirschman index, indicator of concentration, protection of economic competition, Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine.

 

V. M. Tisunova, N. V. Rudavka

Innovative Approaches to Economic Development in Industrial Cities

Market transformation of an economic system is dependent upon a number of problems, of which the most substantial are reduction of industrial output, increasing rates of unemployment, declining living standards, declining performance of social security. These problems can be dealt with through fixing and implementing a number of measures to identify factors for industrial growth, which requires adoption of the innovation-driven model, especially in big cities with high concentration of industrial production.

The purpose of the article is to substantiate theoretical background and recommendations on intensification of activities that would push up the advanced technological base in the cities and bring in an innovative impulse in the reproductive cycle of the city economy. The author’s discussion is focused on a system of measures to deal with economic and social problems faced by the city economy. Innovative cluster building is offered, allowing for the radically new economic model in industrial cities and featuring the advantages such as integrated “investment – industry” cycle capable to sustain the reproduction cycle; dissemination of technological innovations across economic activities; a broader development trajectory bridging the existing technological gap between production and technological entities, to capitalize on additional possibilities for innovative and industrial growth. Also, the theory of human capital is offered as a concept integrating the three components: social partnership; continuous studies and training of personnel in accordance with the necessities of enterprises; accretion of human capital. Conditions for building up the local model for human capital management are outlined, for purposes of upgrading professional competencies and mastering more demanded professions by young people. Priorities of the new development concept are outlined, which is based on balanced use of resources that have significant effects for innovation performance in the prevailing activities of the city economy. Application of the new development concept for industrial cities would require an established system of economic stimuli, providing for collaboration between business partners in effective utilization of R&D and training/retraining of workforce with account to the needs of local labor markets.

Key words: industrial cities, model of innovative development, theory of human capital, research and development, technological innovations.

 

M. V. Shchuryk

Theoretical and Methodological Foundations of Genesis of Land Relations: Paradigmal Concept

The existing foundations of land relations in the agricultural sector of Ukraine and the Carpathian macroregion in particular are studied. The influence of land and agricultural reforms on land resources rehabilitation in the agricultural sector is analyzed.

The essence of administrative and market models and distinctions between them concerning organization of land resources rehabilitation in the Ukrainian context are outlined. Irrelevance of the current economic model for development of land relations in the agricultural sector is shown. Critical review and analysis of the ultimate purpose of the existing market-based management model is given. It is argued that if used further, it will aggravate decision-making for ecological, social, economic and other important problems in the rural area. It is proposed to review the current nomenclature of land owners and users of agro-industrial lands. The need of strengthening the role of central government and local administrations in building up new land relations which would integrate solutions for economic and social problems is justified. The new organization of land resources rehabilitation should rely upon rural inhabitants and rural communities rather than business interests. It is proposed to change radically the existing theoretical and methodological principles for the agrarian sector development. First and foremost, it concerns restriction of private landowning, strengthening of government participation in processes concerned with the agricultural development strategy. Emphasis is made on the solution of social tasks in the rural area, which would require rethinking of the existing human values and radical change in the life style in the rural area. The need for building up land relations in keeping with the sustainability model is analyzed and substantiated. For this purpose, a new agrarian strategy for reproduction of land resources should be formulated. It refers to a national legal document which would not be a blind copy of the principles for land relations, promoted by international financial institutes or foreign counselors.

European countries, especially highly developed ones, such as the U.S., Canada or Brazil, don’t want to see Ukraine as a powerful competitor on the global food market. This fact should be realized, and the national theoretical and methodological framework for land resources development should be elaborated, with due consideration given to national peculiarities, including regions.

It is shown that liberal (neoliberal) model for agriculture development, including its essential component, land resources, failed to ensure and will never ensure proper and effective utilization, preservation, improvement and protection of agro-industrial lands; it will never improve the ecology or solve social problems in the rural area. Meeting of social rather than business interests of selected persons should be laid as the basis for the new concept of land relations.

Key words: model, land, ecology, material, spiritual, concept, property.

 

I. Yu.Yegorov

Development of R&D Statistics: Current Trends in the Developed Countries

The problems associated with changes in research and development (R&D) statistics, are analyzed. These changes are already under way or are expected in the near future in international statistics. The impact of these changes on the collection and presentation of statistical data in Ukraine is discussed.

Leading international organizations (OECD, Eurostat, UNESCO and others) plan to make substantial changes in existing statistical standards. These changes will comprise different areas, including: revision of some basic definitions, including the definition of R&D, based on new criteria for inclusion of certain types of work to R&D (medical trials, for instance); a more detailed definition of R&D in order to “catch” its potential economic effects; inclusion of data on R&D personnel in accordance with the new requirements of the International Standard Classification of Education Levels; introduction of strict standards for calculations of R&D personnel in full-time (FTE) equivalent; new approaches to capitalization of R&D results, including introduction of a special satellite account for R&D.

Changes in statistical standards, especially in basic definitions, may lead to “gaps” in the time series, as was the case in the Ukrainian national statistics in the mid-1990s. So, we propose parallel use of “old” and “new” definitions for a time, to solve this problem.

Calculation of R&D personnel in FTE is not the Ukrainian problem only, as many countries have been facing it for years. “Perfect” solution is to change the system of accounting at the level of research organizations, which is difficult to implement. “Partial” solution of the problem is proposed in the paper.

Also, emphasis in made on the problems of R&D expenditures classification and the prospects of introduction of a special satellite account for R&D within the System of National Accounts. In any case, expected changes in Frascati Manual, which is a key collection of international standards for R&D, could reflect recent changes in R&D, and they will be useful for both decision-makers and scholars working in the field of R&D statistics.

Key words: R&D statistics, Frascati Manual, classification of costs, full-time equivalent.

 

Yu. O. Ryzhkova, I. A. Zhukovich, I. Yu. Yegorov

Methodology and Practice of Surveys of Innovation Activities of Enterprises in Europe

The Community Innovation Survey (CIS) is a survey of innovation activities of enterprises in the EU-27, candidate countries and some other countries. The CIS is a key source for measurement of innovation activity in the EU countries.

The innovation survey in Ukraine has been carried out since 2006, but some methodological problems still have to be solved. The aim of the paper is to discuss methodological recommendations of the EU on innovation survey and analyze international experience in their implementation.

Main features of the EU innovation survey are the following: the official statistical business register of a country should be used as a source of sampling; data should be collected through a census, sample survey or their combination; the observation has to cover the three-year period.

Results of the previous CIS show that most of the EU countries use a combination of census and sample surveys of enterprises, but some countries, such as Malta and Bulgaria, prefer to use a census-based survey only.

The bulk of the countries utilize a stratified random sampling in accordance with the acting methodological recommendations. Differentiation by level of economic activity of enterprises, size and in (some cases) distribution by geographical region is used for stratification of the samples. If a combination of sampling and census is used, the number of employees is used to establish a threshold for picking up companies.

The average sample size for EU countries is 32% of enterprises, and the response rate is 77%. However, in developed countries like Germany and Belgium response rates were only 25.7% and 39.8%. At the same time, there are countries, where statistical offices provide much higher response rate than the average: Spain – 91.38%, Norway – 96.22%, Latvia – 98.51%, and Cyprus – 100%.

The strengths and weaknesses of the innovation survey, identified from different countries, and main improvements of survey quality, proposed by the EU experts are discussed. Ukrainian experience of conducting the innovation survey and its methodological features are described.

It is important to stress that surveys of innovation activities at European enterprises, in terms of methodology and practice, demonstrate some differences in questionnaires, methods of data collection, periods between surveys etc., although all surveys are based on the same methodological recommendations of the EU statistical office. The Ukrainian approach to the statistical survey of innovations, system of indicators and other innovation survey instruments are constructed in a way so as to provide for an adequate reflection of the specific features of the national economy and statistics. At the same time, it takes into account all the key recommendations of the OECD and the Eurostat. However, some problems in surveying innovation activities in Ukraine remain. Analysis shows that the priority should be given to constructing a representative sample, which will enable for obtaining a more adequate picture of the innovation activity in various sectors of the Ukrainian economy.

Key words: survey of innovation activities of enterprises, methodology, sample survey, census, criteria for stratification.

 

A. V. Kuksa

Historical Background for Statistical Analysis of Public Finances

The system of public finances is one of basic components of the national financial system. Proper statistical evaluation of public finances requires a study of their origin and development and a review of mainstream scientific theories in the field. Evolution of western economist’s views on public finances is analyzed, which underwent several phases. Scientific interests of the Ukrainian academic school of public finances are outlined, which are taxation, public credit, national debt, fiscal policy and local finances. The conclusion is made that the theory of public finances evolved in four stages, marked by essential transformation of scientists’ views on the purpose and the components of public finances.

Key words: public finances, system of public finance, statistical study, methodological background, evolution of scientific views.

 

Ye. V. Chekotovsky

Relative Statistical Indexes: History and Theory. Part I. Initialization of the Theory of Relative

Statistical Indexes

The paper deals with historical aspects of initialization and development of relative statistical indexes theory on the basis of literature review.

The most important function of relative indexes is to provide comparison of statistical data. Comparison as a means of cognition has the especially important role in statistics, as no generalization or analysis can be made without statistical data comparisons. Comparisons in statistics are based on calculations of relative indexes.

It is emphasized that although relative indexes were widely used in the earliest statistics researches, their theoretical substantiation as a particular statistical category arose much later.

The first attempt to investigate theoretical background of relative statistic indexes was made by German professor O. Etingen, who in his work “Moral Statistics and Christian Ethics”, published in 1868, for the first time showed the necessity and the meaning of the so called relative (proportional) numbers; he was the first to describe calculation methodology for four types of relative indexes. He considered such important theoretical issues as choice of bases for comparison, their expression forms, and made first steps towards the classification of relative indexes.

Nowadays there is no single approach to definition of the main methodological notions of relative statistical indexes. There has been no single or conventional definition of this statistical category; various interpretations and even names of it are given. The two main approaches to its interpretation are shown: (i) relative index is defined as the result of correlation (division) of two values; (ii) relative index is a numerical measure of comparison of two statistical indexes. A revised definition of relative indexes is proposed on the basis of critical analysis of these interpretations.

Evolution of expression forms and types of relative indexes is shown, with reference to main conditions and principles for construction and applications of relative statistical indexes, changes and additions in the expression forms and types of relative indexes.

Following the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of relative statistical indexes and their classifications given by various authors, the classification is proposed by the following criteria: content of compared absolute indicators, algorithm, time feature, additivity, functional purpose.

Key words: relative statistical indexes, measure, comparison, relation, correlation, calculation method, expression forms, types of relative indexes, principle for construction and applications of relative indexes, classification.

 

І. V. Rozputenko

Governance Deficit: Ideals and Privatization

Problems of governance in Ukraine are highlighted. Attention is focused on the need for rediscovering the ideal, ideas and practical mechanisms for governance in Ukraine. Peculiarities of privatization in Ukraine are outlined. It is shown that privatization in Ukraine contradicted the Constitution of Ukraine, had risky, inefficient and socially dangerous nature. It is emphasized that Ukraine has to change the course of market reforms by abandoning the model of classical capitalism, which canonizes the market and private property, and adopting the model of egalitarianism, which provides equal opportunities for citizens concerning governance and material benefits.

Key words: governance, mechanisms, privatization, reform.