Abstracts

 

V. T. Byelov

A New Kind of Integral Statistical Index and Its Calculation Methods

An essential objective of socio-economic statistics is to construct indices and their algorithms applicable for any socio-economic system. A statistical index is referred to as a synthetic ratio relating two aggregates consisting of elements that cannot be summarized. A new aggregate measure, integral index, is proposed for statistics purposes. Integral statistical index is a measure of the combined effect of a set of socio-economic factors. It allows for a comparison of three or more sums of elements that cannot be directly summarized. From mathematical point, integral statistical index represents a volume in the multidimensional affine space. Also, integral statistical index allows for constructing latent index referred to as an index without a formal measurement unit.

The most important point when calculating the integral statistical index is that it must be defined as a mathematical function in the affine mathematical space. Due to its specifics, the affine mathematical space narrows dramatically the range of mathematical operations in constructing integral statistical index algorithms. Thus, the concept of distance between points and the concept of angle between vectors cannot be introduced in the affine space.

The quested function (integrated statistical index) is proposed to be expanded into an infinite product. This expansion allows for accounting for all mathematical characteristics and limitations as well as various dimensions of the coordinate axes of the infinite mathematical space. Experimental calculation of the integral index for competitiveness of selected refrigerator brands is made, with presenting the results in form of tables.

Key words: statistical index, infinite product, calculation.

 

V. S. Mykhailov, Yu. І. Prylypko

Methodological Issues of Sample Survey of Retail Enterprises

Improvements in the existing system for statistical survey of retail trade in Ukraine are discussed in view of transition to the new system of statistical classifications, Eurostat recommendations, restructuring in the sector etc.

Sample survey tools are elaborated for surveying retail enterprises (legal entities) in view of the new requirements and structural change. An algorithm is proposed for optimal stratification of the general population into the two groups of enterprises, “typical” and “non-typical”, for which sample survey and complete survey is conducted. The algorithm involves iteration of grouping procedures unless the preset accuracy of results is achieved.

Three versions of the survey are proposed with the varying number of indicators. The first, detailed, version stratifies the population into 9 groups of enterprises by commodity group, by two categories of trade (trade network turnover and restaurant business), and by 27 Ukrainian regions. In the second version, enterprises are grouped by the two categories of trade and by region. The third version uses the only one indicator, trade network turnover, to which all the other indicators are linked by their ratios. It is proven that these ratios are quite stable.

The number of enterprises to be covered by survey can be reduced 2.5 times depending on a survey version, with the respective reduction in statistical observation costs. Selection of the version depends on the available funding of statistical works and the survey objectives.

Key words: retail trade, sample surveys, Neumann–Chuprov method, Horwitz–Thomson method, classification of economic activities.

 

М. VPugachova

Forward Looking Indicators in the Special Data Dissemination Standard: Global Experiences and Ukrainian Vision

Search for leading indicators that would provide information about future change in economic tendencies has been in focus of many research institutes, analysts and international organizations like the EU, the OECD, the UN, the IMF or the WB; the former two organizations, being engaged in the studies for dozens years now, could construct quite robust indicators based on information of quantitative and qualitative nature. In the latest years, the issue has been elaborated by the IMF, for purposes of creation and revision of its Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

Forward Looking Indicators (FLIs) are for recommended by the eighth revision of SDDS (2012), with Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) as a barometer of business expectations on economic conjuncture, indicators of future sales in retail trade as a proxy of consumer confidence, and indicator of inflation expectations given as FLIs examples.

A critical review of existing publications devoted to use of various indexes as FLIs in selected countries participating in SDDS is made. Not being harmonized yet, these national indexes (or, probably, systems of indicators) do not enable for cross-country comparisons. Also, neither of these countries has published Purchasing Managers' Index for its economy, as done by the two research organizations, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management and Markit Group (the U.K.). A detailed review of the two PMIs derived by these two organizations is given.

Not all the indicators recommended by the IMF as FLIs can be found in Business Tendency Surveys (BTS) of Ukrainian enterprises. Yet, the Ukrainian statistics, with its established system of indicators based on the harmonized European methodology, could have used its own leading indicators and some BTS indicators constructed in the Scientific and Technical Complex for Statistical Research and published regularly on its website, to monitor change in economic tendencies and receive information on business expectations.

Being born in mind that the SDDS has not recommended so far any specific measures or indicators that could be used as FLIs system, that the European harmonized methodology for BTS at enterprises and consumer sentiments does not contain part of the indicators proposed for use by the IMF, and that European countries are SDDS members as well, the assumption can be made about an intensive process of indicators’ systems harmonization in the nearest future. Still, Ukraine should proceed with search for indicators that could be best to signal fluctuations and turning points in business activity cycles in the Ukrainian economy.

Key words: Forward Looking Indicators, Business Tendency Surveys of Enterprises, leading indicators, business cycles, Purchasing Managers' Index, Special Data Dissemination Standard.

 

V. S. Mykhailov, O. G. Khanin

Approaches to Statistical Modeling of Ukrainian Labor Market: the Segment of Young Professionals and Specialists

This article is devoted to statistical evaluation of the youth unemployment and employment in the informal sector, especially the graduates with Bachelor’s or Master’s degrees, and the effect of professionals’ and specialists’ employment (persons occupying positions requiring Bachelor's or Master's degrees) on the gross income at country and economic activity level.

On the basis of a comparative analysis of the shares of unemployed in the total economically active population of Ukraine, economically active specialists and professionals and economically active graduates of universities, colleges or general education institutions, which covered the period of 2010–2012, it is concluded that the average unemployment rate for graduates of education institutions is about 4 times higher than the one for the general population, and about 6 times higher than the one for professionals and specialists.

There is an increasing tendency in unemployment among the Ukrainian youth, against the declining unemployment among the economically active population. Similar rates of growth in employment in the informal sector for the entire population aged 15–70 and young people aged 15–24 are derived, with much higher scales of youth employment in the informal sector.

The derived trends show urgent need for change in planning of the number of HEE graduates by optimizing their distribution by specialty and specialization, and possibly by correcting their academic programs.

Construction and analysis of the linear regression model of dependence of the gross income by economic activity and the gross national income on the number of employed specialists and professionals and the number of employed persons in other groups shows that the increase in the gross national income and the gross income in activities such as agriculture, hunting and forestry, electricity, gas and water is caused mainly by the increasing number of employed specialists and professionals and the reducing number of employed persons in other groups, with the significance approximating to 0.2 (80-percent probability); for activities such as construction, trade and repair of motor vehicles, household appliances and articles for personal use this conclusion is correct with the probability higher than 85 percent; for manufacturing industry, transport and communication, education, health and social services, this conclusion is correct with the probability being higher than 95 percent.

Although the analysis by the linear regression model leads to the conclusion about the exceptional importance of professionals and specialists in the Ukrainian labor market, the share of unemployed educated persons (with complete higher education and especially with basic education) has been increasing, given rather constant share of unemployment in the total Ukrainian population in 2008–2012. This situation calls for appropriate political decisions to change the employment structure.

Key words:   basic and complete higher education, youth aged 1524, unemployment rate, level of participation in the informal economy, linear regression model, level of education, gross income.

 

М. V. Schuryk

Protection and Rehabilitation of Regenerative Properties of Land Resources: Regional, Economic and Statistical Dimension

The existing condition of land resources in the agricultural sector of Carpathian macroregion is studied. As shown by the analysis, land and agrarian reform in Ukraine fails to improve soil fertility or land management at either national or regional level. The economic model laying the basis for land use in the Agro-Industrial Complex (AIC) of the Carpathian region does not provide for adequate protection and rehabilitation of regenerative properties of soils. Defects of the privatization of agricultural lands entailed their portioning into small land plots, with great many small land owners (shareholders).

Threats for the system of land protection, coming from large agricultural enterprises, are shown. They, by far, include persisting cultivation of the same plants or wasting use of agricultural land. Intensive use of mineral and organic fertilizers and liming of agricultural land affects the quality and the structure of agricultural land. Another group of significant threats originates from the industry, mostly from ecologically dangerous and unsafe enterprises, thus enhancing the need for intensification of measures on environmental protection, including the lands in possession of the agricultural sector.

It is shown that the privatization model adopted in Ukraine on the whole and the Carpathian macroregion in particular, with sharing the land fund and transference of small land plots to great many small shareholders, a priori fails to improve protection of public lands and rehabilitation of their regenerative properties. It is argued that the action on land improvement in the Carpathian macroregion should be launched with an inventory of lands that are currently used and owned by the agricultural sector according to the land register.

The need for withdrawal of part of agricultural lands from AIC is substantiated, as part of the measures on structural optimization of the fund of agricultural lands, which will enable to launch rehabilitation and protection of lands in keeping with present-day requirements. Measures on protection and rehabilitation of regenerative properties of lands in the Carpathian macroregion should involve structural optimization of land owners and users, purposeful use of land plots, levy of administrative penalties on land owners and users whose privatized land plots are not used at all, idle or weed-grown.

The author’s recommendations concern the need for broader and more effective participation of central government and local governments in monitoring and control of not only land use but protection of land and observation of the legal rules on land use by land owners and users, with the heavily increased amount of fines and other penalties for violations of legal rules or escaping the measures on soil conservation or soil fertility improvement. The fines should be much higher than the profits received by an owner of land plot. Merely administrative sanctions are unlikely to bring the required effect. Measures on protection and rehabilitation of regenerative properties of agricultural lands can, therefore, be propagated and encouraged through educating actions among school and university students and at broader community level, to foster a new ideology relying upon values specific to responsibility and morality.

Key words: reproduction, fertility, ecology, protection, land, property, state.

 

R. M. Motoryn

Significant Events of the Year in International Statistics

Essential problems of international statistics are considered, with emphasis on new solutions for methodological problems of economic, social statistics and education statistics.

A report about International the Year of Statistics (Statistics2013) is given. More than 2000 organizations from more than 220 countries have joined the Statistics2013 initiative. Among the participating organizations are universities, statistical societies, national statistical offices, statistics units of international organizations, research statistics institutes. One of the reasons for celebrating the International Year of Statistics is this year is the 300th anniversary of the publication of Jacob Bernoulli’s well-known Ars Conjectandi. However, Statistics2013 does not only celebrate the history, but also present-day developments.

The problems of the Principles Governing International Statistical Activities were subject to panel discussion on “International Statistics – Supplying International Statistics for Decision Making” at the 59th World Statistics Congress of the International Statistical Institute in Hong Kong. Themes for discussion are:  “Assuring High Quality International Statistics: A Perspective from the BIS”, “International Trade in Services in Statistical Frameworks”, “Politics and Statistics: A happy marriage?”, “New Collaborations to Assess the Reliability and Relevance of Food Data Collected in National Household Surveys”, “Supplying Evidence Based International Statistics for Decision Making”.

In today’s knowledge-based society, the youth plays a significant role in shaping the future through their creativity and receptivity. This is no exception to the statistics field. With this in mind, the Congress put forward “Youth” as this year’s theme, with the special day, “Youth Theme Day”, to encourage young people to the statistics profession. This echoes the goal of the 2013 International Year of Statistics.

A detailed review of challenges for official statistics, discussed at the 59th ISI WSC in Hong Kong by prominent leaders in official statistics is given. Of the discussed issues, the following ones are highlighted: improvement of Purchasing Power Parities algorithms; integration of information on agricultural census and population census; measurement of the population welfare; use of geospatial information in agricultural and environmental surveys, statistical methods for analysis of financial data; programs for teaching statistics to non-specialists; evaluation of statistics training by large-scale standardized tests; training of official statisticians through implementation of Core Skills Framework.

Key words: international statistics, official statistics, economic statistics, social statistics, statistics education.

 

Ye. V. Chekotovsky

Relative Statistical Indexes: History and Theory.
Part II. Relative Statistical Indexes: Evolution of Concepts, Formats, Principles for Construction and Use

The paper deals with historical aspects of initialization and development of relative statistical indexes theory on the basis of literature review.

The most important function of relative indexes is to provide comparison of statistical data. Comparison as a means of cognition has the especially important role in statistics, as no generalization or analysis can be made without statistical data comparisons. Comparisons in statistics are based on calculations of relative indexes.

It is emphasized that although relative indexes were widely used in the earliest statistic researches, their theoretical substantiation as a particular statistical category arose much later.

The first attempt to investigate theoretical background of relative statistic indexes was made by German professor O. Etingen, who in his work “Moral Statistics and Christian Ethics”, published in 1868, for the first time showed the necessity and the meaning of the so called relative (proportional) numbers; he was the first to describe calculation methodology for four types of relative indexes. He considered such important theoretical issues as choice of bases for comparison, their expression forms, and made first steps towards the classification of relative indexes.

Nowadays there is no single approach to definition of the main methodological notions of relative statistical indexes. There has been no single or conventional definition of this statistical category; various interpretations and even names of it are given. The two main approaches to its interpretation are shown: (i) relative index is defined as the result of correlation (division) of two values; (ii) relative index is a numerical measure of comparison of two statistical indexes. A revised definition of relative indexes is proposed on the basis of critical analysis of these interpretations.

Evolution of expression forms and types of relative indexes is shown, with reference to main conditions and principles for construction and applications of relative statistical indexes, and the changes and additions in the expression forms and the types of relative indexes.

Following the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of relative statistical indexes classifications given by various authors, the classification is proposed by the following criteria: content of compared absolute indicators, algorithm, time feature, additivity, functional purpose.

Keywords: relative statistical indexes, measure, comparison, relation, correlation, calculation method, expression forms, types of relative indexes, principle for construction and applications of relative indexes, classification.

 

М. І. Vorona

Legal and Institutional System for Public Administration of Foreign Students’ Education in Ukraine

The system of foreign students’ education in Ukraine is focused on integration of Ukraine in the global science, education and culture. The article’s objective is to outline key components and mechanisms of the system for administering education and training of foreign students in Ukraine. It involves structural and functional analysis of central and regional administrative offices charged with supervision of education, accommodation and status of foreign students in Ukraine; analysis of the existing legal acts concerned with education of foreign students in Ukraine; construction of a structural and functional diagram of the process of foreign students’ education in Ukraine; identification of problems encountered by foreign students in Ukraine.

As follows from the analysis, the Ukrainian regulatory base in the field, being not in compliance with the requirements and realities of the global market of education services, evolving from recent innovations in the global education area, needs essential revisions. Also, the Ukrainian education system doesn’t offer a wide range of education services in many specialties or at certain qualification levels. Higher education diplomas awarded in Ukraine are not acknowledged in many countries, making graduates pass additional qualification exams in a home country.  While in other countries foreign students are allowed to have a job, especially when the fee is high, foreign students in Ukraine are not entitled for an official job and foreign graduates are not entitled for probation in Ukraine. The procedure for deportation from Ukraine of the foreign students who are not intended to study in Ukraine but in transit to Western Europe is yet to be clearly elaborated. An essential reason for foreign students’ vulnerability in Ukraine is their poor awareness of their rights and responsibilities in their relations with universities, and of their own status as foreign citizens in Ukraine; it is known that they receive too limited information about their legal status from university administrations. The above facts are confirmed by information obtained from students’ interviews held by the Center “Social Action” on line of the project “Without Boundaries”.

The conclusion is made that on account of the inadequate legal base, foreign students’ stay in Ukraine still involves many problems related with accommodation conditions, legal protection, information supply etc., which requires follow up studies, to elaborate recommendations on improvements in administrative mechanisms for foreign students’ education in Ukraine.

Key words: foreign students, higher education establishment, higher education, education services, foreign student’s education and stay in Ukraine.

 

О. А. Shatylo

Historical Genesis of the Category “National Interest”

Any country is guided in its development by a set of values evolving from its social structure, individual interests of its citizens, form of the statehood, the external environment etc. Once clearly defined, delineated and legitimized, these values evolve into the category of “national interest”, laying the basis for sustained development of a country.

Issues of fostering the social consciousness, relations within the society and between the society and the state used to be in focus of scholars in all times and cultures. Philosophers of Ancient Greece laid the fundamental principle for understanding the meanings of categories “individual”, “society”, “state”, and their relations. The logical extension of Greek philosophers’ works were studies by scholars in ancient Rome and China, also devoted  to various aspects of an individual, a society and a state, and the balance of their interests. The next stage covered the Medieval Age, with the rationalist philosophy being surrendered to religious dogmatism from which perspective the above concepts were interpreted.

The rational worldview was rediscovered in the Renaissance times, with the creative rethinking of the meaning of the interest of an individual, a society and a state. At this period, the essence of national interest was first elaborated by N. Machiavelli who made it stripped of morality-specific concepts and religious dogmas for public policy-making purposes, with the top priority given to the ends justifying the means.

The category “national interest” was further extended and conceptualized by philosophers, scientists and public leaders in subsequent times, such as J. Bodin, G. Rohan, D. Hume, R. Aron, J. B. Duroselle, P. Renovin, M. Debré, H. J. Morgenthau, G. F. Kennan, W. Wilson, J. Rosenau.

The study allows for concluding that rethinking of the “national interest” category took several historical phases. At the first phase covering the Antiquity times, the role of individual, his interests and relations with the state was established. The second phase covering the early Medieval Age features decline of the rational worldview and prevalence of religious dogma in interpreting the role of an individual, a society and a state. In the third phase beginning in 16th century, the category “national interest” got clear interpretation that was subsequently used for theoretical and practical purposes. During this period, the two key national academic schools (French and American) devoted to issues specific to national interest were established. Two approaches to interpretation of the national interest appeared within the American school, realistic and idealistic, with the latter laying the basis for further theoretical reflections in the field.

Key words: national interest, genesis of national interest, individual interests, social interests, public interests.

 

O. K. Primyerova

Life Path, Scientific and Practical Work of M.H. Bunge (in Memory of the 190th  Anniversary since the Birth)

The article is devoted to the 190th anniversary of M. H. Bunge, an outstanding scientist and an economist, a statesman and a reformer. His life path, main publication, results of scientific research, nation-building and reforming efforts are shown. In focus of the article is the heritage of M. Bunge, whose diversified interests impresses researchers. M. Bunge’s research is devoted to issues of political economy, economics, statistics, finances, law, accounting, industry, trade and others. Rich biographical information is given to highlight the phases of his life, main achievements and most important milestones in his carrier, which evidence on his innovative nature and wide-range interests. Scientific achievements of M. Bunge and his role in establishing the academic school of political economy school are outlined.

A detailed review of his essential works of is given. The most essential ones on political economy are Principles of Political Economy and Essays on Political and Economic Literature”. M. Bunge’s ideas about the subject of political economy, its place in the system of scientific knowledge and its links with practical work are discussed, with reference to basic categories elaborated by him in his works. His judgment of Marxist and utopian socialist theories, the social reform he conceived, his interpretations of categories such as private property, market competition and social partnership are shown. An important statistical work of M. Bunge is his Course of Statistics” written for students of Kyiv University. In it, M. Bunge substantiates the existence of statistics as a separate field of science, with analyzing historical and methodological background of statistical data collection and processing, elaborating the procedure for statistical works and studying composition and movement of the population. Proposals of M. Bunge on structuring and improvement of the statistics course are highlighted.

M. Bunge’s conclusions from his study of systematic works” by statisticians of 17th – 19th centuries and his vision of the needs and future prospects of statistical science are given.

The so-called political testament of M. Bunge, The Afterlife Notes”, in which he elaborated his vision of important issues concerning relations between national communities, reforms of central and local public administration, peasant and factory regulation, public education.

The essence of liberal market reforms undertaken by M. Bunge when he took the office of Minister of Finances of the Russian Empire is shown, with reference to judgments of his performance at this office, given by economic reforms analysts of that time.

Key words: university, political economy, statistics, scientist, reform, education.