Abstracts

 

I. M. Nikitina, O. O. Moskvin

Introducing New International Standards on National Accounts in Ukrainian Statistics

New trends in the economy and the changing needs of statistical information users necessitate periodic updates to the national accounting methodology. Ukrainian and international statistics has been on the way to adopting the international methodology of SNA 2008. Since 1993, the Ukrainian statistical practice has introduced nearly all the main components of SNA 1993, in accordance with international standards. Transition to the new international standards for macroeconomic statistical indicators required coherent effort of key Ukrainian ministries and agencies in harmonizing production of national accounts statistics with the statistics of public finance, balance of payments and monetary statistics.

The main phases in implementing national accounts in Ukraine were (i) transition to the updated classification of economic activities in 2010, (ii) methodological revision of main national accounts aggregates, and (iii) transition to the new reference year. Methodological revision to be made at the first phase is one that changes the scopes and the structure of GDP. The most important was methodological change in measurement of financial transactions, assets, inclusion of illegal activities in the production sphere, methodological change in measurement of cross-border shipments of commodities for processing, measurement of services for owner housing. Further revisions of the Ukrainian national accounts will aim at continued implementation of new provisions on national accounting, improvement of balance of payments statistics, public finance statistics and monetary statistics, which is expected to enhance the quality of macroeconomic statistics of Ukraine as an integrated system of macroeconomic indicators.

Key words: national accounts, statistics, gross domestic product, institutional sector, the methodology of statistics.

 

V. V. RyazantsevaN. S. Podhayska

Valuation of Bank Capital: Theory and Practice. Part 2. Income Approach

         The article is devoted to income approach to bank management. Bank value is an indicator of primary importance for not only its market operation but for its management purposes. An important component in bank valuation is estimating the cost of bank liabilities, which is the price paid by a bank to raise financial resources, or the price to make potential lenders invest money in a bank. 

         As a result of this study, shares of the Ukrainian Sberbank (Savings-Bank) were estimated by Black–Scholes model and Olson model. Two-factor model for bank valuation is constructed as part of income approach, with computing point and interval estimates of bank value. All estimates calculated in different ways fall within the limits of confidence interval. The estimated capital of Sberbank will range from 17217392 thou. UAH to 18718321 thou. UAH, with 0.95 probability. Its average range is 17699202 thou. UAH to 18236511 thou. UAH, with not higher than 5 percent probability of error.

The results show applicability of the conventional methods based on Black–Scholes model and Olson model and the proposed two-factor model for bank valuation. Methods for valuation of bank capital, tested on Sberbank, are fit for practical use. The derived estimates of bank capital confirm the importance of value-oriented management in enhancing bank management performance, competitiveness, investment attractiveness and security of domestic banks.

Key words: bank valuation, evaluation by income approach, synthetic model of Black–Scholes, risk-free rate, duration of debt, volatility, Olson model, discount rate, special risks, two-factor model, point and interval forecast.

 

L. О. Yaschenko, О. М. Motuzka

Seasonal Adjustment: A Main Phase in Computing Business Confidence Indicator for Industry

Construction of indicators for business expectations, enabling for monitoring periods of growth and recession in an economy with quarterly or monthly periodicity and predicting turning points is a prime task of business statistics today. The main indicators of business expectations, produced in European countries on line of the Joint Harmonized EU Program of Business and Consumer Surveys are Business Confidence Indicators, Economic Sentiment Indicator and Business Climate Indicator.

A main phase in constructing the indicators is seasonal adjustment, which is elimination of seasonal fluctuations from time series by a conventional method. The article aims to find a more acceptable method for seasonal adjustment, for purposes of computation of the business confidence indicator for industry. This indicator is derived as average arithmetic mean of the balances for contracts in industry (demand) in the current period and stocks of finished products in the current period (with the reverse sign), and change in the output in the forthcoming three months.

The indicator can be derived by use of two methods for seasonal adjustment: direct and indirect. If indirect seasonal adjustment is used, balances are first adjusted seasonally, and, thereafter, the indicator is produced by their aggregation.

The EU member states carry out seasonal adjustment by the software Demetra+, designed by the National Bank of Belgium and Eurostat. Software Demetra+ (business confidence indicators) is designed to implement two methods for seasonal adjustment. Although very different methodologically, both methods are based on ARIMА model.

The analysis enables for the following conclusions:

1. No essential advantage from applying either TRAMO-SEATS or Х-12-ARIMA to time series has been found. A method should be chosen by consideration for the parameters of quality diagnostics.

2. No essential advantage from applying either direct or indirect method for seasonal adjustment of times series has been found.

3. The constructed indicator of business confidence for industry has strong linear correlation with seasonally adjusted rates of GDP growth, from which it follows that it can be used as an indicator of change in the economic development of Ukraine.

Key words: blowouts, decomposition, Demetra+, quality diagnostics, business confidence indicator, calendar effects, ARIMA model, seasonal adjustment, seasonally adjusted series, TRAMO-SEATS, Х-12-ARIMA.

 

S. S. Herasymenko, V. S. Herasymenko

Statistics of Higher Education Quality in Ukraine: Introduction to the Problem

Conventional statistical methods used in quality management of commodities and services need to be applied in evaluating quality of higher education in Ukraine. The study is focused on elaborating the related problems. Higher education quality evaluation needs to be started with approaching the higher education system theoretically as a market economy sector, from the perspective of the market conjuncture analysis, with due account for the peculiarities of higher education establishments as entities engaged in “production” of a peculiar “commodity”, specialists with higher education, by way of rendering education services,

However, statistical methods used to quality evaluation of commodities and services cannot apply in a direct way to evaluate quality of professional education, due to several reasons: varied view of employers (labor market) on the range of competencies and skills required for specific jobs; varied labor conditions at similar jobs in various organizations and enterprises; dynamically changing criteria of professional competencies and skills, due to the advancement of science, technologies and organization of work.

In view of the international practices in evaluating the country’s capabilities for transition to the knowledge-based economy, quality evaluation of the Ukrainian higher education needs to be based on the two principles:  harmonization of the national education system in Ukraine with education systems in European countries, to further integration of Ukraine in the European Education Area; dissemination of information about training programs and specialties in Ukrainian HEEs in view of the labor market demand. Also, the evaluation needs to be based on the standard ISO 9000, which will require setting up the standard (target) of education activities as the foundation for building up higher education in Ukraine, and a set of criteria to evaluate the correspondence with this standard. The quality of education will be really high given the quality of education resources (academic programs, teaching personnel, university entrants, facilities, finances etc.), education process (research and training activities, administration, training technologies etc.), results of education activities (measured by career promotion of university graduates).

Tasks to be solved in building information database for quality management in Ukraine with use of statistics on higher education quality are highlighted.

Key words: higher education establishment, higher education, quality, higher education quality, standard, criterion, Law of Ukraine “On Higher Education”, evaluation.

 

Т. V. Каneva, S. S. Каrtashova

Measuring the Value Average Statistical Life in Ukraine: Methodology and Recommendations

The problem of estimating monetary value of human life arises from the need of financing actions on neutralization of threats and minimization of risks in all walks of life. A highly controversial issue in many studies devoted to evaluation of risks and losses is economic estimates of risks for human health and life. This issue has always been vital due to high value of risks for health and life compared with the value of other categories of risk. The abovementioned necessitates an analysis of possibilities to adapt conventional methods for estimating the economic value of the statistical life (VSL) for Ukraine.

A detailed review is made of the methods to measure VSL on the basis of data from labor market studies, on the basis of international comparisons, on the basis of the utility theory, and on the basis of actuarial approach. VSLs for Ukraine are computed using several methods, by input data from statistical books “Population of Ukraine, statistical data on distribution of deaths by gender, age group and cause of deaths.

It is argued that when bringing forth recommendations concerning VSL in the Ukrainian context, due consideration should be given to the lower average per capita income of the Ukrainian population compared with the one in the countries with higher economic wellbeing, and the related lower willingness of the former to change market goods for non-market ones. The review of various VSL methods and their use to compute VSL for Ukraine enables to recommend VSL estimates for Ukraine ranging from 375 to 500 thousand USD for several purposes such as estimation of losses incurred by casualties in emergency situations, optimization of measures to reduce risks and mitigate consequences of emergency situations and funds for their implementation etc. For other purposes such as budgetary or corporate payoff to families of the dead in emergency situations or reimbursements of losses by the insurance system, for professions specified by the Ukrainian law, VSLs ranging from 125 to 190 thousand USD are recommended. Also, the recommended VSLs are given in view of the current economic situation in Ukraine, with their revisions in parallel with economic recovery.

Key words: risk, natural damage, risk assessment and analysis, value of statistical life, price of risk, utility theory, actuarial mathematics, theory of value, social and economic damage, “willingness to pay”.

 

H. I. Tereschenko

Review and Selected Results of the Sample Salary Survey in Ukraine

An extended review of the first Ukrainian Sample Salary Survey of enterprises, by gender, age, education and professional group (SSS) is given, conducted on March 2013 by the Ukrainian State Statistics Service. The SSS program is designed with consideration to relevant international standards. The SSS covered the population of enterprises with numbers of employees 10 and more, and involved the combined approach, with the population of enterprises with 250 and more employees surveyed on the census basis, whereas the population of enterprises with 10 to 249 employees surveyed by sample method, with sample built by random stratification procedure. The total number of surveyed enterprises was 19.3 thousand. Also, the SSS involved a survey of selected employees from the surveyed enterprises. The number of employees selected for the survey depended on the size of an enterprise according to the pay-roll documents as of October 31 of the reporting year. For enterprises with 10 to 19 employees, 4 persons were subject to survey, 20 to 49 employees – 8 persons; 50 to 99 – 12 persons; 100 to 249 – 16 persons; 250 to 499 – 20 persons, 500 to 999 – 24 persons; 1000 to 4999 – 32 persons, 5000 and more – 40 persons. The total number of employees surveyed within the SSS is more than 277 thousand.

The analysis of microdata from the survey shows that salaries in Ukraine in 2012 strongly varied by gender and education level. Women’s salaries tended to amount only 79% of the men’s. Higher education diploma ensured a higher salary for all the professional groups. The SSS data confirm strong correlation between profession and salary level. Directors, managers, parliamentarians, top government officials etc. all received 50 percent higher salary than the average one. It is also true for professionals and qualified manufacturing workers, whose salaries were higher than the average by 17% and 7% respectively. The rest of employees had salaries lower than the average, with salaries of employees in trade, services and elementary professions only slightly higher than the average.

Key words: sample surveys, labor statistics, salary, professional groups, microdata.

 

D. V. Arlachov, R.А. Maretsky, I. Ya. Korshynsky, V. S. Buchyk

Accession Contract: An Instrument for Stable Relations between Consumers and Suppliers of Utility Services

The need for use of accession contract as an instrument for setting up stable and mutually beneficial relations between consumers and suppliers of utility services is shown in the Ukrainian context.  The utility services in Ukraine still face a great deal of problems hampering is efficiency, of which the gravest ones are imperfect regulation of relations between suppliers and consumers of utility services, low accountability and culture of some of the suppliers and consumers of these services, resulting in poor protection of consumer rights, low performance of business entities supplying utility services, low quality and imbalanced supply of utility services. Today, utility services are not always supplied to consumers on the contract basis, more often due to reasons not depending on the suppliers. Legal acts and norms regulating the procedure of signing contracts for utility services are in many ways inconsistent and contradictory.

The specifics of accession contract are considered, its comparison with other types of contracts (public contracts and standard contracts) used in utility services supply in Ukraine is made. An extended review of the legal and regulatory acts of Ukraine, pertaining to utility services consumption and supply, is made; argumentation for the need of their revision and amendments is given. The categories of consumers to whom the accession contract apply are outlined, which are physical persons. Differences between physical persons and legal entities regarding the supply of utility services are explained. It is argued that because accession contract has not been a common practice in Ukraine, the relevant information needs to be disseminated via public and official media. Further fields of studies related with utility services supply, relevant to the Ukrainian context, are proposed.

Key words: utility services, consumer of utility services, supplier of utility services, accession contract, standard contract for services, payment for services.

 

I.                                 A. Zhukovich, Yu. I. Prylypko

Experimental Computation of the Summary Index on Innovation in Services for Ukraine

The methodological basis for constructing the Summary Index on Innovation in Services (SIIS) for Ukraine is laid by developments and recommendations of a European Commission research project INDICSER. The project aims to set up indicators providing information for the EU on the development of service sector, and the method for SIIS computation. A detailed review of the project methodology is given, with highlighting the main requirements for indicators used for SIIS.

The sources of information for measuring the innovation activity in the service sector and constructing SIIS for Ukraine are data of the official statistical observation "Survey of innovation of the enterprise". The survey conducted by the EU methodology (Community Innovation Survey (SIS)) using the same questionnaires has been an essential and authoritative official source of statistical information to measure the innovation activity in services.

Database of the Ukrainian SIS, conducted in 2013 and covered information over 2010–2013, is used for the experimental computation of SIIS for Ukraine. SIIS for Ukraine was computed at country level, by type of economic activity in service sector and by region.

SIIS for Ukraine computed by the EU methodology allows for the conclusions about scopes, structure and tendencies of innovation in the Ukrainian service sector, which are quite similar to the conclusions made by analysis of selected indicators from the business innovation survey. The methodology may, therefore, be recommended as an effective tool for analysis of primary statistical data for monitoring innovation in the Ukrainian service sector.

Key words: innovation, service sector, innovation survey, Community Innovation Survey, composite indicators, Summary Index on Innovation in Services (SIIS).

 

О. А. Vyshnevska

Improvements in Regulatory Support for Youth Policy in Ukraine

Issues of building up and improvements of regulatory base on the youth policy in Ukraine are discussed. Institutions that would be in charge legislative, institutional and methodological developments on the youth policy had existed in Ukraine before the independence was proclaimed in 1991. It was this period when theoretical, practical and legal efforts on the youth policy building and implementation were launched. A review of four main phases in the youth policy building in Ukraine is made, with highlighting the peculiarities of each phase in terms of responsible political institutions and enforced regulatory acts, and of five periods in building up regulatory base for the youth policy in Ukraine, as outlined by earlier studies on the intensity of the enforced legal acts.

It is shown that principal aspects of the youth policy in Ukraine, such as ones related with implementing rights of young citizens in various walks of social and political life, were outlined in legal acts concerned specifically with the youth or within other regulatory acts (as separate items) on broader socio-economic and socio-humanitarian fields.

An extensive review of the two momentous legal acts on the youth policy in independent Ukraine is given, the Declaration “Principles of Youth Policy in Ukraine” (1992), and the Law of Ukraine “Encouragement of Socialization and Social Development of Youth in Ukraine” (1993). Reference is given to many other acts (Laws of Ukraine, resolutions of the Cabinet of Ministries of Ukraine and Presidential Decrees) and to parliamentary hearings devoted to various aspects of the youth policy in Ukraine. It is argued that although the legal base has been subject to continual revisions and amendments, it still requires improvements, as some of the acts are in a way controversial, and many of them are but ignored. This confirms the need for activating other administrative power mechanisms for youth policy regulation in Ukraine.

Key words: public youth policy, youth, public authorities, period, social centers.

 

S. V. Scherbyna

Analysis of Food Safety Indicators in Ukraine: Methodological Aspects

A detailed analysis of food safety indicators is contained, laid as the basis for outlining political decision-making mechanisms to secure sufficiency of domestic food production in Ukraine. The following tasks are set: (i) to review the existing methodologies for analysis of food problem, with account to relevant practices in developed countries; to study the food security factors; (ii) to validate the need for regulatory measures in attaining food safety; (iii) to outline peculiar features of policies specific to food safety, in order to formulate the measures for enhancing the food self-sufficiency.

Essential threats to food safety in Ukraine are highlighted: imbalanced consumption of foods by the population; low level of consumption of foods of animal origin; high share of households’ expenses on foods in the total expenses; high variation of food expenditures by social group;  low capacity of domestic market by selected foods; prevalence of crude agricultural products in exports; growing prices on agroproducts at the domestic market with improper domestic control of food safety.

The following seven food safety indicators are recommended in the context of the above threats: capacity of the domestic food market; daily nutritive value of human diet; sufficiency of consumption by category of food; sufficiency of grain stocks in government reserves; economic availability of foods;  differentiation of food expenses by social group; self-sufficiency of domestic production by food category.  A detailed review of some of the indicators is given.

The indicators of reliance on imports are outlined, which can be used in implementing policies of food self-sufficiency enhancement in Ukraine. The parameters of import substitution in the food sector are determined. The recommendations are given on increasing the public food reserves and the share of agricultural products with high value added in the agricultural output.

Key words: food safety, food safety indicators, public policy, foods, agricultural raw materials, public administration mechanisms.

 

E. V. Chekotovsky

Tabular Procedure: Theory and History.

Part II. Initialization and Formation of Theoretical Basis for Tabular Procedure

The paper deals with historical aspects of initialization and development of tabular procedure on the basis of literature review. The article consists of three parts, each being devoted to a certain period of development and application of tabular procedure in statistics science.

It is mentioned that the idea of tabular procedure as an essential method of generalization and analysis is belonged to English philosopher Francis Bacon. He was the first to assume in his work The Novum Organum (published in 1620) that tables provided the opportunity for mind to reveal the essence of phenomenon and subjects, discover causal links between phenomena.

The paper emphasizes that the background of tabular procedure in statistics, from the perspective of modern understanding, was given in the works of founders of political arithmetic and their followers. They were the first to establish drawing up tables for systematizing of statistical data and setting them in the most suitable and clear form, and to use applied tables for calculating general statistical characteristics, namely, relative and average indexes.

An extensive reference is made to works of Danish scientist I. Anhersen and Russian scientist I. K. Kirilov, regarded as founders of statistical tables, to show their role in initialization and development of tabular procedure. The characteristics, terms and conditions that had negative effects for development and application of tabular procedure are shown.

Approaches of foreign statistic scientists such as A. Quetelet, A. Wagner, E. Engel, O. Oettingen, G. Majer concerning the role and the meaning of tabular procedure, necessity of its application for studying mass social and economic phenomena are highlighted.

A detailed review is given of the contributions of Russian academic statistics (J. E. Yanson, O. I. Chuprov, L. V. Fedorovich, L. V. Hodskiy) and Zemstvo (elected body of local self-governance) statistics in development and application of tabular procedure. It is mentioned that Zemstvo statistics discovered combinational statistical tables, devised the methodology for making up group and combinational tables and their application in statistics studies. The attention is paid to the scientific contribution of O. A. Kaufman, a famous Russian statistician, who was the first to propose a scientific definition of statistic table and to lay the background classification of statistical tables, which nowadays is used widely in statistic science.

Following the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of the classification of statistical tables, found in the literature, a new classification is provided by the author.

Key words: tabular method, statistical table, main elements and types of statistical tables, subject and predicate of statistical table, elementary statistical table, group statistical table, combinatory statistical table, classification of statistical tables.