Abstracts

 

Т. І. Lumpova,

PhD in Economics;

О. Е. Оstapchuk

 

Problems of the Typology of the Statistical Production Processes Results by Information Objects in GSBPM

   The article analyzes the results of the process components (PC) of technological plan (program) of official statistical observations (TP OSO) in Ukraine for 2014–2015. TP OSO was designed for the process scheme based on Generic Statistical Business Process Model (GSBPM) with details of PC hierarchical levels: "process – sub-process – procedure – operation".

    Based on the analysis, the typology of PC results is made, with linking them to top-level groups of information objects (IО) of Generic Statistical Information Model (GSIM). TP OSO was designed by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine as a tool to improve statistical production process management, including planning, monitoring, audit and results evaluation. The release version of the Classifier of Processes and Processes Elements of Statistical Production Processes (Classifier) for TP OSO was created in 2013–2014. Classifier includes Reference Book of TP OSO Performed Procedures and Operations Results (Reference Book). Reference Book is organized as a nomenclature of results for each operation or a procedure without operation. This nomenclature was produced from result descriptions in the pilot project of TP OSO in 2013–2014. Reference Book aims at systematizing various result descriptions and creating the framework for constructing the result descriptions standard. This standard is supposed to provide the consolidated use of statistics in the information media, in order to make the statistics readily available for interpretation and comparison, and to be used in constructing a meta-database about statistical production process once typology and unification of result descriptions for each PC is made.

   Developing the typology algorithms for results of PC GSBPM as the framework for constructing the standard for their description has importance for reorganization of the Ukrainian statistical production, because these results are information components of GSIM, and GSIM refers to the highest level of information architecture in the CSPA framework.

    The link of Generic Activity Model for Statistical Organisations (GAMSO) and GSBPM (as a part of GAMSO) with GSIM is analyzed. The basic components of the input data and results of PC GSBPM for TP OSO are identified. A scheme is given, illustrating movement of information objects representing input information and results of PC in GSBPM. This scheme can be used as a pattern for description of information flows in the Information Architecture of CSPA. Typology of the PC performance results, shown in the scheme, was made (without reference to a specific PC), with subsequent detailing of selected types. Thereby, the typology of results is made by type of result in a specific group of IO GSIM.

    Further steps are proposed to for rationalization of statistics production process and CSPA development:

1) Develop a standard for PC of TP OSO results descriptions by type of result on the basis of the results of TP OSO for 2014–2915; use this standard to systematize Reference Book, with linking the results to ІО GSIM, and make the appropriate changes in PC descriptions in the Classifier.

2) Make a comparative analysis of official statistical observations (OSO) schemes of similar type (by periodicity, coverage of statistical observation units and other characteristics) and a selected OSO performed in various years, to evaluate its effectiveness.

3) Define the patterns for typical scheme of production process for similar groups of OSO and other types of statistical work.

4) Make recommendations for improvement of statistical work, to ensure data quality.

 5) Using the improved Classifier and Reference Book, up-date the information and reference database for the computerized cost accounting system operating in Ukrainian official statistics bodies, in order to set up the conditions for evaluating the production process effectiveness.

6) Optimize the functionality of statistical work and the organizing structure of the official statistics bodies.

   The proposed principles for using the typology of PC performance results are expected to improve statistical production by harmonization and standardization of various parts of this process. This will promote shared use of tools, services and solutions to attain the goal: to set up turnaround management of changes in a way suitable for a particular change.

   Key words: statistical production process, process planning, process component, Generic Statistical Business Process Model, Generic Activity Model for Statistical Organisations, Generic Statistical Information Model, Information Objects.

 

 

О. А. Shevchuk,

DSc in Economics, Associate Professor,

Pro-rector on Scientific and Pedagogical Work,

Innovation and International Relations,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting an Audit,

Е-mаil: [email protected]

 

The Role of Statistics in Economic Research

    The article reviews the establishment of economic statistics as an economic science rather than an auxiliary mathematical tool for economic research, as it was for a long time. Attention is paid to the applicative nature of statistical methods and indicators, which that allows for generating information necessary for the development of effective management decisions. References to studies of Nobel Prize laureates in Economics are given, which conclusions are based on the results obtained with use of statistical methods and approaches. The tasks of economic research are summed up, which solution requires use of descriptive and analytical statistics. Applications of statistical methods in assessing risks of bank activities are discussed in detail in view of the critical role of the banking system in today's global economy. A large part of the study is devoted to the history of risk management which methods are based on theoretical foundations of statistics; emphasis is made on VaR method used for risk assessment in most countries, but which has not yet commonly applied in Ukraine. Statistical approaches to refine the results of expert assessments of bank risk are proposed. Scheme and formulae for such assessment are given, which use allows for improving the validity of the ratings for both the national banking systems and individual banks.

   Key words: tasks of study, mathematics, applied statistics, statistical methods, risks of bank activities, banking statistics.

 

 

I. M. Krepchuk,

Postgraduate student,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Statistical Research of Attracting of Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine

   The objective of the study is to analyze the peculiar features of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine, outline the problems related with foreign investing in Ukraine and formulate recommendations on their potential solutions.

   A statistical analysis of FDI flows to Ukraine, covering 1996–2014, shows that FDI scopes, being quite insignificant over the period under study, featured upward tendency, which, however, changed to negative one at the end of 2014. The analysis of FDI distribution by investing country in 2014 shows that more than 80% of FDI came from 10 biggest investing countries. The analysis of FDI by economic activity in 2014 shows that the major share of FDI was accounted by the three activities: industry (32.3%), excluding the high tech segment, finances and insurance (25.1%), trade (13.1%). Yet, professional, research and technical activities accounted for only 6.2% of FDI, which is less than real estate (8.3%).

   A detailed review of essential reasons behind the bad investment climate in Ukraine and declining flows of FDI to Ukraine is made; central problems of FDI in the Ukrainian context are highlighted. It is emphasized that FDI flows to Ukraine cannot be intensified and streamlined to the innovation-driven economic development unless the innovation attractiveness of Ukraine is enhanced. A set of priority measures capable to improve the conditions for foreign investment in Ukraine is proposed.

   Key words: foreign direct investment, investment climate, residents, nonresidents, investment activity, economic crisis, privileged regime, foreign investors.

 

 

A. V. Sydorova,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Head of Economic Statistics Department;

A. M. Glushchenko,

Postgraduate Student;

Donetsk National University

 

Integral Evaluation of Changes at Metallurgical Enterprises

    The need for computing the integral coefficient of changes is substantiated at company and its functional subsystems (production, marketing and sale, finance, staff) level. A methodology for integral evaluation of changes at metallurgical enterprises is proposed for improving the efficiency of management. In this methodology, the system indicator of changes in the functional subsystems of metallurgical companies is constructed. This scorecard includes the chain growth rate for rolled products production, the capital productivity, the chain growth rate for net sales, the ratio of turnover to current assets, the ratio of net income to cost of sales, the financial autonomy ratio, the general liquidity ratio, the net return on sales, the chain growth rate for staff number, the labor productivity, the ratio of growth rate for productivity to growth rate for average real wages. For the raw data, the standardization procedure on the basis of reference values is substantiated. The reference values are computed using the standard values, and the averages of indicators included in the calculation of the integral coefficient of changes (the industry averages and the geometric means of the investigated enterprises indicators). The two-stage aggregation method for the standardized indicators is explained. At the first stage, the integral estimates of changes in every functional subsystem are computed as simple arithmetic means. At the second stage, the integral coefficient of changes is calculated as weighted arithmetic mean which envisages adjustment of the integral estimates that were got at the first stage on the weights which reflect the significance of every functional subsystem for the support of corporate activities. The weights are computed using the analytic hierarchy process. It is established that the first position in terms of importance for metallurgical company is taken by the functional subsystem “Marketing and sale” (weight 0.689), the second one – by “Finance” (0.139), the third one – by “Staff” (0.086), the fourth one – by “Production” (0,085). Using the designed algorithm, the integral coefficient of changes is calculated for “Dneprovsky Iron & Steel Integrated Works named after F. Dzerzhynskyi”, “ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih” and “Zaporizhstal”. The dynamics of the integral coefficient of changes is analyzed. It is found out that the performance of “Dneprovsky Iron & Steel Integrated Works named after F. Dzerzhinsky” has fallen in practically all the functional subsystems. At the same time, “ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih” and “Zaporizhstal” had problems related with low returns from sales and insufficient liquidity. Recommendations for the management system improvement are given.

   Key words: integral factor of changes, steel mills, change management, functional subsystem, hierarchy analysis method, normalization of indicators.

 

 

I. V. Panasenko,

PhD in Economics,

Associate Professor of Economic Statistics Department,

Donetsk National University

 

Socio-Economic Normal: An Indicator for Effectiveness of Service Sector

    The aim of the article is to analyze the performance of service sector through constructing the socioeconomic normal for this sector, for its performance evaluation. The normal is constructed by the assumption that the performance of this sector is determined by the three groups of factors, economic, social ones, political ones and legal ones, which need to be considered in the evaluation. Gross added value, investment and employment are taken as macroeconomic indicators for the performance evaluation in service sector; the period under study covers 2010–2014. The analysis made by use of the above indicators shows too slack development of the sector, while its performance can improve given the following conditions: growth rates for gross value added in the sector are higher than growth rates for gross value added in the economy; growth rates of gross value added in the sector are not lower than growth rates for capital investment in the sector; growth rates for capital investment in the sector are not lower than growth rates for employment in the sector; growth rates for employment in the sector are higher than growth rates for employment in the economy.

  The analysis shows that actual ratios of the above growth rates, computed for the period of 2010–2014, are not in conformity with the proposed socio-economic normal, the exception being the period of 2012–2013. Basically, the comparison of the reported growth rates of the above indicators with the ones proposed by use of the socio-economic normal gives evidence of the extensive development model in the Ukrainian service sector and absence of effective employment programs in Ukraine.

    Key words: services, service sector, socio-economic normal, production of services, employment in service sector, service sector effectiveness.

 

 

L. О. Yaschenko,

PhD in Economics,

Senior Researcher, Department Head;

М. V. Lyesnikova,

PhD in Economics,

Senior Researcher, Department Head;

Research Institute of Statistical Studies

 

Methodological Framework for Meta-Analysis: the Case of Clinical Studies

   Meta-analysis is a statistical analysis summing up data from several analogous studies. Meta-analysis may combine, mathematically, two or more studies aimed at testing the same hypothesis. Its advantages include the increased statistical capacity of a study, entailing a higher accuracy of the measured effect of an analyzed parameter, and its cost-effectiveness.

   The purpose of the study is to outline the meta-analysis framework and demonstrate its implementation by use of data from clinical research: use of the medical drug Proteflazid® in medical treatment of papillomavirus infection. The meta-analysis covered 8 studies “occurrence – control”. In general, 539 patients with pathologies of cervix and urogenital pathologies caused by papillomavirus infection, and 498 patients of the control group were studied. The meta-analysis is conducted on the basis of the three indicators:

  1. Frequency of recurrences of condylomatous deceases.

  2. Frequency of detection of human papilloma (HP) using the method of polymerase chain reaction (PCR).

  3. Frequency of disappearance (essential decrease) of HP replication using PCR method.

   Z-criterion of Fisher is used to measure statistical significance of the combined ratio of chances. The heterogeneity of the set of data from a separate study is measured using the test on heterogeneity. The criterion x-squared is used to evaluate the heterogeneity between the studies. Р < 0.05 indicates on a statistically significant heterogeneity. Also, heterogeneity effects are measured by I2 -test, which is the ratio of the variability of the studies more favorable to the heterogeneity than to the chances.

    Key words: meta-analysis, ratio of chances, heterogeneity, model of fixed effects, model of random effects, Forest plot, Funnel plot.

 

 

Т. H. Bondaruk,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Head of Finance Department;

I. O. Melnichuk;

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

The Role of Official Transfers in Generating Revenues of Local Budgets in Ukraine

     A peculiar feature of the budgetary relations in Ukraine is large and increasing share of official transfers in local budgets revenues (52% in 2013). The study aims to analyze the impact of official transfers on local budgets’ revenues in Ukraine using the official statistical data on official transfers, by transfer category (2010–2014), share of local budgets revenues in the Ukrainian GDP, share of official transfers in the central budget (1996–2014).

    The study shows upwards tendency regarding nearly all the category of official transfers, which is an indication of their heavy impact on local budgets revenues in Ukraine compared with local tax revenues. The period under study features the stably increasing share of official transfers in the central budget and high volatility of the share of local budgets in the Ukrainian GDP with the overall upward trend. Basically, the results give evidence on high level of centralization of the budgetary system in Ukraine with the accordingly high dependence of local budgets on the central budget, entailing high financial dependence of local administration bodies in Ukraine.

    Key words: local budgets, local budgets revenues, sources of revenues, official transfers, budgetary relations

 

 

S. І. Dzhus,

Post-Graduate Student of Statistics Department,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

Statistician,

Chief Statistics Department in the city of Kyiv

 

Analysis of Scientific Approaches to Definitions of the Notions “Stock Market” and “Securities Market”

     The article is devoted to analysis of the essential meaning of the notions “stock market” and “securities market”, which necessity stems from the current situation in the Ukrainian stock market, referred to as “reloading”, as a consequence of change in the national legislative and regulatory acts, introduction of a novel approach to accounting of its transactions, and the blurred border line between the above notions. This situation prevents from enhancing the reliability of statistical information on the securities market dynamics, which causes the distrust in it by potential investors.

   The essential meaning of stock market as an economic category and its operation principles are defined in the article, for proper elaboration of the guidelines for analytical studies of the Ukrainian stock market.

    The objective of the study is to analyze and sum up the approaches to interpretation of the notions “stock market” and “securities market”, with formulating definitions that take account of theoretical and practical contexts.

    The scientific contribution of the study is in broader interpretation of the category “stock market” as the synergy of securities market (including all the types of transactions with all the types of securities) and the system of economic relations that occur in the process of raising, distribution and redistribution of corporate and private funds and transactions with them. Also, the category “securities market” is interpreted from practical point as the system of economic relations between the market participants engaged in profit-making transactions on allocation, circulation, purchase and sales of securities.

   The structural scheme for the Ukrainian stock market is proposed, which lay grounds for the conclusion about the essential difference of the two notions, because one market is an integral part of the other. The need for future in-depth studies in the field is emphasized.

    Key words: stock market, securities market, funds, stock exchange, source of statistical data, shares, National Commission on Securities and Stock Market.

 

 

Т. O. Kamenska,

DSc in Economics, Associate Professor,

Head of the National Center for Accounting and Audit,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit,

Certified auditor of Ukraine,

Vice President of the Guild of Professional Internal Auditors of Ukraine

 

Internal Audit: Rise and Development

    Rise and current performance of internal audit is discussed. Key chronological phases of audit are defined by analyzing the development of international audit in the international context. Functions of international audit in corporations and the development of technologies used by auditors are taken as the chronology criteria. The five phases in which the notion “internal audit” was undergoing gradual evolution in the global theory and practice are defined. At the earliest phase, the tasks of internal audit were confined to reviews of accounting reports and the check up function, namely, checks up of storage of material assets and execution of orders issued by enterprise management. At the current phase, internal auditors contribute to improvements in the risk management processes, corporate management and control.

   Results of the analysis of the existing regulatory documents pertaining to internal audit in Ukraine are shown, allowing the author to define chronological phases of its establishment. Internal audit in Ukraine first established as the system for control over operation of commercial banks, aiming at evaluation and improvement of the banks’ internal control system. Subsequently, internal audit was being introduced in the state financial control, in the corporate management of joint-stock companies and in financial institutions. Detailed review of the peculiarities of the current phase is given, with emphasis on the ones related with informal aspects of internal auditors’ work. The definition of internal audit and the key requirements to its functions and tasks, fixed in legal documents of regulatory bodies in Ukraine, are given. The conclusion is made that the regulatory framework for organization and operation of internal audit in Ukraine fully conforms international requirements and standards.

    Key words: internal audit, phases of development of internal audit, functions of internal audit, Standards for Professional Practice of Internal Auditing, regulatory framework of internal audit.

 

 

О. Е. Lubenchenko,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Department of Accounting and Audit,

State Economic and Technological University of Transport

 

Identification of Factors Influencing the Assessment of the Attractiveness of the Audit Subjects when Rendering Related Services

   The process of outsourcing an external consultant for rendering related audit services such as preparation of financial information on selected issues is studied. Factors affecting the attractiveness assessment of audit companies when rendering the related services and the existing methods for assessing the acceptability of consulting services using the integrated parameter and EFQM model (model of excellence of the European Foundation of Quality Management) are reviewed. The outlined qualitative characteristics of auditor companies at the consulting market and the price factors lay the background for the proposed matrix model for presentation of the attractiveness index for related services. A review of definitions of “efficiency” is given. It is emphasized that the efficiency, being a broader indicator for evaluating audit companies in rendering related services, is largely conditional on the market demand for these auditor services. Invitation of an external consultant (auditor) is conditional on several factors that need to be accounted for by the audit company personal: qualification of personnel, pricing of services; convenient (comfort) way of rendering services; assessment of the client performance after the auditor advice is accepted; assessment of losses and risks that may occur if the auditor’s warnings are neglected; readiness of the management personnel of a client to take on the responsibility for the results of financial and economic operation after the auditor advice is accepted. Awareness of consideration for these factors allows a client company to take on the competitive position at the market.

   Key words: consulting services, performance, economic entity, index of attractiveness, EFQM Model, costs, profitability.

 

 

A. V. Ozeran,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Associate Professor of Entrepreneurship Activities Accounting Department,

Kyiv National Economics University named after Vadym Hetman

 

Optimizing the Scopes and Structure of the Financial Statements

    Given the growing demand for information, an essential problem is the adequacy of the financial reporting scopes to their processing capacity. There is an urgent problem of scientific substantiation of the optimal composition of financial reporting and the nomenclature of its items, to maximize its analytical capacity for decision-making purposes.

    The aim of paper is to study the relationship between the business scopes and the use of the balance sheet items at enterprise level, and to build a mathematical model that need to be considered when designing forms of the balance sheet.

   The study of the balance sheet for 102 Ukrainian enterprises shows a notable correlation between the net revenue from sales and the proportion of the number of items used in the current balance sheet. This correlation is expressed by a linear equation allowing for the following conclusion: for the studied sample of enterprises, annual increase in the net revenues by 100 million UAH ceteris paribus leads to average 0.1 percent increase in the proportion of the number of the used balance sheet items.

   The balance sheet format recommended by the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance is made without consideration to the real needs of enterprises in the reported data on the financial performance, which are largely dependent on the business scopes and conditions and sectoral specifics of enterprises. However, the comprehensive analysis of the itemization of the balance sheet currently existing in Ukraine allows for substantiating its items nomenclature containing 33 major items (mandatory minimum) and sub-items (items of second order) specifying the major ones.

    The proposed principle for constructing the balance sheet enables for better compliance of the size and structure of the reported data with business needs of enterprises, and for the level of detail of balance sheet items required for financial analysis and effective management.

   Key words: financial statements, balance sheet of enterprise, the level of detail of balance sheet items, the empirical correlation ratio, regression equation.