Abstracts

 

Т. І. Lumpova,

PhD in Economics;

О. Е. Оstapchuk

 

Use of Statistical Service to Introduce Service Oriented Architecture of Statistical Production

     Issues of implementation of Common Statistical Production Architecture (CSPA) for modernization of the production process in the Ukrainian official statistics bodies (OSB) in keeping with the European standards are analyzed. Emphasis is made on introduction of the process scheme in the production setting, with separating statistical services as a tool to enhance the economic effectiveness through collaborative development, exchange and re-use of methods and tools. The position of statistical service in the production process and the importance of its description when introducing Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) in the Ukrainian OSB, which is the basis for CSPA from the IT perspective, are highlighted.

     The conditions required to build CSPA for applications of Generic Statistical Business Process Model (GSBPM) and Generic Statistical Information Model (GSIM) have already been set in the Ukrainian OSB. They include the tool for planning and preparation of the production process, which is technological plan (program) of official statistical observations (TP OSO), built on the GSBPM basis with specification of process components (PC) in the sequence “process – sub-process – procedure – operation”; the release version of the Classifier of Processes and Processes Elements of Statistical Production Processes (Classifier) and Reference Book of TP OSO Performed Procedures and Operations Results (Reference Book), developed for TP OSO for 2014–2015 with consideration to future modernization of the information system. Results of the analysis show that the Ukrainian OSBs have the capacities required to develop the conceptual description of statistical services using the available database; recommendations on its composition are given, capabilities for identification of the aggregated statistical service and the information flow in it are illustrated.

    Keywords: Common Statistical Production Architecture, Statistical Production Process, Generic Statistical Business Process Model, Generic Statistical Information Model, Service Oriented Architecture.

 

 

O. K. Yelisieieva,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Head of Department for Statistics, Accounting and Economic Informatics,

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University;

P.V. Khazan,

Candidate,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Statistical Assessment of the Renewable Energy in Ukraine Compared with Advanced Countries

    Development of renewable energy sources and the increasing share of renewable energy in generation of thermal and electric energy is an important criterion of sustainable development. Renewable energy sources refer to the sources that cannot be exhausted in the process of use. They include solar emission, atmosphere wind, natural flow of water and thermal processes of the Earth. The gross energy consumption in EU countries is expected to include 20% of energy from renewable sources till 2020 and 27% – till 2030, with the expected 20% reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases relative to 1990.

   Although the target measure of renewable energy generation in Ukraine for 2020 is 11% in the total energy generation, it is far lower than in EU countries. Due to a large share of resource-consuming enterprises in Ukraine the resource capacity of the Ukrainian GDP is twice higher than in the U.S., and thrice higher than in Germany or Japan. Data about the dynamics of energy generation from renewable sources in Ukraine in comparison with Spain, Germany, Italy, the U. S. and other countries are given. While the capacities of renewable energy sources in Ukraine have been gradually increasing, energy generation from these sources did not have similar tendency. In 2013 Ukraine generated 15.8 TW of electricity given the total capacity of 6.5 HW, whereas in 2014 10.3 TW was generated given the total capacity of 7.1 GW.

    Coefficients of correlation between energy generation from renewable sources, total energy generation and per capital GDP are calculated for Ukraine, Germany and the U.S.

   Decreasing costs of technologies, competition at the market of renewable energy sources, increasing direct investment, especially in solar and wind energy sectors, has restructured not only generation and use of thermal and electric energy, but also GDP. The analyzed data show that in developed countries there has been close correlation between the populations’ well-off and the renewable energy generation. This correlation is largely a result of high tech systems for energy generation, transmission and consumption and far lower share of resource-consuming technologies in the economic structure of these countries. The calculated coefficients can be used for comparative analysis of the renewable energy generation and macroeconomic performance.

     Keywords: renewable energy generation, statistical assessment, renewable energy sources, energy effectiveness, energy saving, investment, sustainable development, energy security, “green tariff”.

 

 

M. A. Kovalenko,

Postgraduate student,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Forecasting Effects of Expansion of Small Business for GDP

    Problems of small business performance in Ukraine are discussed. The share of small business in the Ukrainian GDP is analyzed. It is emphasized that Ukraine has strong capacities to develop small business sector and turn it to highly effective and export oriented economic sector.

    Small business constitutes an integral component of the market economy, capable for flexibility, for mobilization of financial and production resources, for creating new jobs and economically sufficient and sustainable medium class of the population.

    Small business has to become the backbone of the Ukrainian economy. Small business entities are fullfledged structural components of the economy, as they are capable to increase employment, use resources in a cost-effective way, eliminate disproportions at selected market segments, enhance competition, intensify innovation and promote economic growth in the country.

    Small and medium business makes the basis of developed economies today. Its share in GDP in many European countries is higher than 50% (70% in Italy, 60% in Germany, 52% in France); in neighboring Poland this share is 47%, whereas in post-soviet Russia and Belarus it is 22% and 23% respectively. Because the estimated share of small business in the Ukrainian GDP varies from 11% to 15%, with the average about 13%, by contribution of small business in GDP Ukraine has bottom positions in the European rating (according to Eurostat data). This situation can be changed by improving business climate, which can also reduce unemployment.

    The structure of small business share in GDP is defined by income approach. It is shown that employees’ wages, production and import taxes, and gross profit, mixed income had upward tendency in 2010–2015. Small business contribution in the national GDP is forecasted. It is proved that the most accurate computation model is polynomial one, where the regression line is presented as quadratic function. This method enables for highly accurate accounting of the previous growth rate dynamics. The capabilities for small business expansion are assessed and propositions on its support are given.

    Keywords: small business, entrepreneurship, share of small business in GDP, structure of GDP by income category, primary incomes, forecasting.

 

 

H. M. Lunova,

Senior lecturer, Department of Fundamental Economic Disciplines,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Rural Population of Ukraine: Statistical Analysis of Living Standards

    Low living standards of the population, especially rural one, are an urgent socio-economic problem for the Ukrainian economy. The purpose of this article is analysis of characteristics and indicators of living standards of the rural population in Ukraine, to find and improve the mechanisms for their stabilization and consequent growth. The living standards of the rural population are assessed by analyzing the incomes (including the wages) and main indicators of poverty, and finding out the tendencies of natural movement and employment of rural population.

   The analysis shows an increase in the nominal average monthly incomes of the rural population and an insignificant gap between incomes of the rural population and the urban population. However, real incomes of the rural households in 2014 fell due to rapidly growing consumer price index.

    There’s a wide gap between the structure of total incomes of rural and urban households, including the gap between the shares of wage and income in kind. While the share of wage (main source of income) for rural households is 35.1% of the total income, for urban households it is 56.9%. A large share of total incomes of rural households (9.4%) originates from sales of agricultural products. The essential reasons behind the expansion of economic activities within a rural household are absence of permanent cash earning, low functionality of the labor market, lower salaries in the agricultural sector and, consequently, the falling living standards of the rural population.

     According to sample survey of households, conducted by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, while in 2010 the share of the rural population classifying themselves as “poor ones” had been 65.1%, in 2014 it grew up to 75.5%.

    The measures of natural growth and employment are used as social indicators for assessment of living standards of the rural population in Ukraine. The analysis shows the falling numbers of the rural population in Ukraine, caused, first and foremost, by depopulation (with numbers of deaths exceeding births). The employment rate in 2014 was 9.3% Ukrainian average and 9.5% in the rural area.

      The analysis leads to the conclusion on the low living standards of the rural population in Ukraine. A way to enhance them is to intensify the government support to small rural businesses, which would enable to reduce the employment rate and increase the household incomes.

      Keywords: rural population, living standards, incomes, resources, wages, employment, living wage, poverty

 

 

A. V. Nepran,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Assistant professor of Department of finance, accounting and auditing,

Kharkiv Institute of Trade and Economics

of Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics

 

Statistical Analysis of Differentiation in Bank Lending in Ukraine

    The article contains a statistical analysis of the differentiation in bank lending in Ukraine. As-sessment of Regional Development and its intensity using a system of statistical indicators leads to the conclusion that the regional development bank lending could definitely be described as uneven: the constitutive feature of asymmetric development is the dynamics of spread in favor of regional indicators. The gap has been increasing too rapidly between lending to regional economic activities like trade and construction and to the others. The economic crisis has provoked large-scale credit redistribution effects between regions, resulting in the increased differentiation of bank lending. This is especially true for long-term bank lending (over 5 years), where the share of the three regions accounted for over 80% of the total lending. Asymmetric development leads to the increasing centrifugal trends, the increasing gap between regional indicators of bank lending, and the deepening regional differences. It is found that the cause for strengthening of regional asymmetry in bank lending is redistribution of financial resources through the bank system in favor of certain regions. Calculation of localization ratios for individual regions with high levels of bank lending leads to the conclusion that the credit growth in these regions is not accompanied by the increasing production effectiveness.

    This means that the bank lending policy has created an obstacle to economic recovery in Ukraine. It is obvious that without taking measures to narrow regional differentiation in bank lending, individual territories are unlikely to be able to achieve significant economic growth in the near future. To narrow the regional differentiation, the National Bank of Ukraine needs to introduce restrictions on lending to selected types of economic activities that are engaged in financial intermediation in the city of Kyiv.

    Keywords: credits, deposits, bank lending differentiation, regional asymmetries, regional development, the concentration of credit resources, the redistribution of credit resources, the resource base of banks.

 

 

Ya. V. Kudria,

PhD in Economics, Research Associate;

R. V. Mikhel,

PhD in Economics, Junior Research fellow,

Department of Development of the Production

Sector of the Region and Investment,

SI “Institute of Regional Research named after M.I. Dolishniy” of the NAS of Ukraine

 

Statistical Measurement of Exports and Imports of Goods in Lviv Region

     Integration in the global economic relations has great importance for the Ukrainian economy. The extending participation of Ukraine in globalization and integration processes has positive effects for the performance of domestic enterprises, competitiveness of domestic industrial production, output, exports and foreign economic activities as a whole.

    Exports and imports are central to foreign economic relations, enabling to use advantages from labor division and promoting competitiveness enhancement.

     The Western area of Ukraine and Lviv region in particular is an important industrial segment of Ukraine because of its geographical location at the borders with EU member countries. As Lviv region has a larger share in the European industrial market relative to other Ukrainian regions, this raises the importance of studies into the dynamics of exports and imports of Lviv region with EU countries.

     The purpose of the article is to study the current structure and prospects of export-import transactions in Lviv region by industrial commodity group, with account to the requirements of free trade zone between Ukraine and EU.

     The measurement shows the declining trend of industrial exports and imports in Lviv region in 2011–2015. The export trend was volatile, indicating change in the market conjuncture. The exports were dominated by products of wood industry, foods and beverages, and mechanical engineering. Industrial imports declined in a major part of commodity groups, as a result of national currency devaluation. Sectoral distribution of imports was dominated by mechanical engineering, textiles, mineral products and polymer materials.

    АВС-analysis shows that manufacturing industries have a major share in the region’s exports. These are apparel and foods, textiles, products made of wood. A set of measures is proposed to promote industrial development and increase the export capacities in Lviv region given the free trade zone.

     Keywords: foreign economic transactions, exports, imports, border region, industry, development, condition, statistical measurement, tendencies.

 

 

R. O. Kulynych,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Head of Department for Mathematics, Statistics and Information Technologies,

Khmelnytsky University of Management and Law

 

Statistical Study of Factors Influence on Forming of Results of External Independent Evaluation

     Statistical study of correlations between socio-economic measures, their forecasting and simulation has important analytical function in statistical science, because enhanced industrial capacities is an important factor for solution of socio-economic problems, bridging regional gaps, growth of the national economy’s competitiveness, and improvement of education quality.

     The purpose of the article is to construct the method for factor analysis of results of external independent evaluation in Ukrainian regions in 2014/15 academic year by use of statistical regression equations. This method is used in solving direct and inverse statistical problems, to find proportions of change in factor variables and dependent variable. The direct problem is finding the dependent variable when a factor variable changes by 1 or by another standard value. Multiple linear regression is used to find the share of factors included in the calculation in the dependent variable. It is found that solution of the direct statistical problem can be interpreted by one-factor models, when one of the studied factors included in the calculation has the largest significance, that is, when its impact on the dependent variable has the major share. In cases when neither of the factors is of large significance for the dependent variable, solution of the direct statistical problem can be interpreted only by multiple regression model.

    The problems set according to the purpose of the study are solved by use of software “Method of statistical regression equations”. Input data are data on external independent evaluation of high school pupils in Ukrainian language and mathematics, by Ukrainian region, 2014/15 academic year; the pupils are included passing evaluation with 183.5–200.0 scores. Calculations are made by the above methodology adapted to the operation specifics of the education sector.

    Keywords: quantitative assessment of connections, method of statistical equations dependencies, paired association, multiple association, factor variable, dependent variable, results of external independent evaluation.

 

 

I. V. Panasenko,

PhD in Economics,

Associate Professor of Business Statistics and Economic Cybernetics Department,

Donetsk National University

 

Integral Assessment of the Secondary Education Performance in Ukraine

   The purpose of the article is integral assessment of the secondary education performance in Ukraine. The integral measure for the secondary education performance in Ukraine is derived by the method of multidimensional average. The set of factors underlying the secondary education performance is substantiated. The indicators are broken in the two groups: performance stimulators (gross regional product per capita; number of secondary education institutions; number of pupils in secondary education institutions per 10,000 population; coverage of children by secondary education institutions; number of teachers in secondary education institutions), and performance de-stimulators (number of children not covered by the secondary education institutions; number of repeaters, which are pupils remaining in the same form for second year). The integral measure of the secondary education performance varies from 0 to 1.

     The analysis shows that the integral measure grew from 0.441 in 2011 to 0.556 in 2014. The highly performing regions (Lviv region, the city of Kyiv, Kyiv region and others) and the poorly performing regions (Lugansk and Donetsk regions) are identified. The grouping of Ukrainian regions by the integral measure derived for 2011 and 2014 is made. Tendencies in the secondary education performance are found. The ranking of Ukrainian regions by the integral measure of the secondary education performance is made. The graph of change in the regions’ ranks in time (drift-gram) is constructed. It is found that the decreasing ranks are featured by Donetsk, Chernihiv, Odesa, Rivne regions, whereas the increasing ranks are featured by Sumy region. The other Ukrainian regions featured the stable performance of secondary education during 2011–2014. The vectors of change in stimulators and de-stimulators of the secondary education performance in the Ukrainian regions are found and ways for up-grading their ranks are proposed.

    Keywords: education, secondary education, multidimensional average, integral rating, secondary education performance, ranks of regions by the rating of secondary education performance.

 

 

V. I. Krylenko,

DSc in Economics, Associate Professor,

First Pro-Rector,

V. O. Sukhomlynsky National University of Mykolaiv

 

Budgetary Financing of Agrarian Sector: Advanced Methods for Assessment of Regulatory Policy

     Peculiarities of advanced methods for regulatory policy assessment in the context of budgetary financing of agrarian sector are analyzed and summed up, to find adequate methods for assessment of the regulatory policy effectiveness.

    The organizational and economic mechanism for budgetary financing of agrarian sector is constructed, which includes the following phases: elaboration of the doctrine for the governance system in budgetary financing of agrarian sector; finding out and assessment of correlations between the system’s components; building up the synergetic effect (synergetic relations increase the effect from concerted actions of system’s components and ensure its emergent properties and integrity (by complementing or assuming the functions of components that are purposefully or occasionally missing); making the system stably operable and continually operating.

      An analytical review of the system for assessment of the regulatory policy effectiveness in the context of the Ukrainian agrarian sector enables to propose methodology for assessment of regulatory policy in the above mentioned context by use of synergetic relations that increase the effect of concerted actions of system’s components, which ensure its emergent properties and integrity. The methodology based on system synergy is substantiated as a universal one enabling for effective analysis of combination of various methods, tools, regulatory instruments involved in budgetary financing of agrarian sector. The analytical review of the system for assessment of the regulatory policy effectiveness in the context budgetary financing of agrarian sector enables to propose the assessment methodology by use of synergetic relations that increase the effect from concerted actions of system’s components, which ensures its emergent properties and integrity.

    Keywords: regulatory policy, financing, agrarian sector, approach based on system synergy, synergetic relations, effectiveness of regulatory policy, methods of regulation.

 

 

A. V. Kudinova,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Associate Professor of the Economics Department;

D. V. Verba,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Associate Professor of the Economics Department;

SHEI “Kyiv National Economic University

named after Vadym Hetman”

 

Structure of Households’ Consumer Spending as a Factor and a Consequence of Socio-Economic Processes in Ukraine

    The correlation between characteristics of household consumption pattern in Ukraine and the household income is studied. The authors propose to consider the national household consumption pattern as not only a result of a certain level of income, relative prices and demographic characteristics of households, but also as a significant factor behind the human resources reproduction and the structure of national economy.

    Two groups of consumer spending with critical influence on the consumer behavior of Ukrainian households are identified. The first group covers expenditures on foods and non-alcoholic beverages. The second one is the synthetic group covering expenditures on education, healthcare, culture and recreation, transport and communication. Higher correlation of these consumer expenditures with human development and human capital accumulation compared with the other groups of expenditures is chosen as the classification criterion.

    By the methodology of consumer behavior pattern analysis, found in international scientific sources, the reduced share of spending on foods tends to be interpreted as the most explicit sign of progress in consumer spending patterns and a factor for reallocation of resources in human capital accumulation. Comparisons of the elasticity of demand for foods on the income with the elasticity of demand for goods with stronger effects for human development and accumulation of human capital can, therefore, characterize the potential of inclusion of the national model of consumer behavior in the set of factors for social development in Ukraine.

    A model for correlation between the shares of the above groups in the consumer spending of Ukrainian households and their real incomes is built using the Working’s equation.

    The elasticity of demand for foods on the income and the elasticity of demand for goods with stronger effects for human development and accumulation of human capital is assessed. The relatively high measure of the elasticity of demand for goods with stronger effects for human development and accumulation of human capital (negative one derived for the firsts group of consumer spending and positive one derived for the second group of consumer spending) leads to the conclusion that the increasing purchasing power of Ukrainian households is capable to significantly improve the structure of Ukrainian households’ consumer spending.

    Keywords: consumer spending, household income, national consumption pattern, Working’s model, immediate needs, the needs related to human development.

 

 

О. Е. Lubenchenko,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Department of Accounting and Audit,

State Economy and Technology University of Transport,

Certified Auditor of Ukraine

 

Monitoring of the System for Audit Quality Control in Foreign Economic Activities: Practical Aspects

      The essential meaning of the quality of audit of foreign economic activities is studied. The need for high quality fulfillment of audit tasks by auditors is substantiated, as foreign users of national financial reports will require reliable and impartial information from national companies, confirmed by an external auditor. The regulatory documents of the Auditor Chamber of Ukraine regarding audit quality control are highlighted. It is proved that the quality of audit services needs to be assured at the level of auditor, audit firm and audit, in particular through establishing the system for quality control on the basis of the Code of Professional Ethics, International Standard of Quality Control “Quality Control for Firms Engaged in Audits and Supervisions of Financial Reports, and Other Tasks on Assurance and Related Services”, International Standard of Audit 220 “Quality Control for Financial Reporting Audit”, Provision from the national practice of quality control of audit services 1 “Organization of Quality Control System for Audit Services by Audit Firms and Auditors”, and other regulatory requirements. The essential meaning of the definitions “audit quality” and “audit quality monitoring” is highlighted. The components of quality control system by International Standard for Quality Control (ISCC 1) are analyzed: responsibility of managers for quality assurance within a company; ethics requirements; acceptance of a client and continuation of cooperation with him/her, and taking on specific tasks; labor resources; task fulfillment; monitoring of quality control system for auditor services. The scheme of correspondence between monitoring of the policy and the procedures of quality control for auditor services and International Standards of Audit is constructed. The test of quality control system, to be made up by an external auditor, is elaborated. It is proved that external impartial monitoring is capable to enhance the trust of investors in audit.

    Keywords: audit, quality of audit services, quality control, auditor, monitoring.

 

 

S. V. Selishchev,

PhD in Economics, Assistant,

National Center for Accounting and Audit,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Internal Audit of Information and Technical Support of Enterprise: Organization Aspects

    The need to concentrate the effort of managerial personnel on internal audit of storage, use and accounting of material assets is emphasized, as a measure to enhance competitiveness through setting up priority tasks related with company management by developing and introducing the strict and effective mechanism for utilization of material assets. Studies of the current practices show that the process of recording and control of information and technical support at company level has peculiar features that need to be considered in organization and performance of internal audit.

     A review of literary sources devoted to approaches to internal audit of information and technical support at company level is made. Essential problems of the current audit practices are highlighted. The structure and composition of the objects of information and technical support is defined. Recommendations on organization and planning of internal audit are given, measures to improve the control system are proposed.

    It is emphasized that when the risks related with the system for internal control of the available assets are assessed, the terms of inventory need to be considered. The model for inventory is constructed, allowing for fixing the real terms and the scopes of works. When the report indicates that the inventory terms differ considerably from the modeled data, this will be a strong evidence to lack of control over the available material assets, and to the need of further auditor procedures related with assessment of the risk of essential distortion of the recorded data on the objects of information and technical support at a company.

     The need for adaptation and further development of existing approaches to internal audit of information and technical support at company level is highlighted, for optimization of time and resources without essential losses for quality and effectiveness of audit.

    Keywords: internal audit, information and technical support, computer equipment, structure, control system, automated workstation.