Abstracts

 

Т. V. Kobylynska,

PhD in Economics,

Deputy Head of Department for Processing of Economic Statistics,

Chief Statistics Office in Zhytomyr Region,

E-mail: [email protected]

 

Statistical Classifications in Agricultural Sector: Methodology for Applications

     Analysis of international and national standards and classifications for agricultural sector, amendments and new items introduced in the classifications in order to have comparable data is made in the Ukrainian context. Methodological principles used to ensure comparability of data in transition from previous to next versions of classifications is shown are highlighted. The structure of the Ukrainian Classification of Economic Activities (CEA) is analyzed by classification level from the perspective of agricultural sector. It is emphasized that essential distinction between the previous and the new version of CEA is more detailed positions for recording of data on products by economic activity, especially at the lowest levels, which causes incomparability of data series computed by these versions. The algorithm for harmonization of CEA is illustrated by agricultural sector. Structural change in Section A “Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry” is demonstrated. Within Section A, structures of Division 01 “Plant-growing and stock-raising, hunting and related services”, Division 02 “Forestry and timber cutting”, Division 03 “Fishery and breeding of aquacultures” are shown. It is concluded that the approach to harmonization of national classifications, used in Ukraine now, i. e. taking European classifications as analogues and their decomposition at national level, can be regarded as appropriate as it can ensure harmonization of national classifications with international ones, along with standardization of terminology, definitions and explanatory notes.

   Key words: statistics of agriculture, statistical classifications, Nomenclature of Agricultural Products, Classification of Economic Activities, structure of classifications

 

 

О. V. Zhurauliou,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Associate Professor of Department of

Foreign Economic Activity,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

 

Statistical Modeling of the National Economy Transformation in the Globalization Context: Institutional Approach

    The article is devoted to the important problem: assessment of national economy transformation from the institutional perspective. It is demonstrated that traditional neo-classical and neo-Keynesian approaches are incapable to fully explain the character of change in macroeconomic indicators in countries with economies that are incomparable by the majority of factors.

    It is shown that the institutional setting has dynamic effects for the economic system. As follows from the theory of institutionalism, when the national economic system is under transformation, the society needs to address the triple problem: first, to adopt change and new mechanisms; second, to eliminate negative effects of change and mistakes, and, third, to preserve the values of the past.

    A broad range of socio-political factors of the institutional setting, analyzed in economic literature at theoretical and empirical level, is highlighted. They include political regime (democracy or other form of government), economic rights and freedoms, type of ownership, freedom and autonomy of judicial system, effectiveness of public administration, supremacy of law and social stability. Also, performance indicators for education and health care system, indicators of shadow economy and social inequality are accounted for in selected empirical works.

    A theoretical model is proposed, which includes index of economic freedoms and number of air flights. The assessment of regression models for countries with the highest index of economic freedom demonstrates that the effective institutes are most effective drivers of economic growth and population’s welfare. However, the reverse statistical impact of index of economic freedom is found for Hong Kong and Singapore; it assumes that the already established and effective institutes are capable to promote economic growth by inertia, irrespective of the model indicators.

    Key words: institutes, economic theory, statistical assessment, transformation, system of indicators, dynamism of transformation theory.

 

 

O. I. Pylypenko,

DSc inf Economics, Associate Professor,

Dean of the Faculty of Accounting and Audit,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Economic Security of an Enterprise in the Conditions of Computerization of the Budgeting Process

     The problem of lack of a standard approach to organization, methodological support and feasibility studies for computerization of business processes for purposes of economic security at enterprise level is discussed considering that qualitative information is a critical asset for the strategic development of an enterprise. The study of effects from properly organized computerization of budgeting process for economic security of an enterprise is important because database on business operation of an enterprise is used in strategy building at an enterprise. The objective of the study is to identify the problems involved in organization and methodological support of economic security at enterprise level in the conditions of computerization of the budgeting process. Because budgeting implies coordinated interactions of the personnel responsible for processing, transmission and use of data by enterprise management given tough competition at the market, storage of valuable information in computerized systems has to meet specific requirements. The measures are proposed, to be taken by enterprise management to implement effective budgeting. The problem of economic security failure at enterprise level due to dispersion of data, the variety of technological platforms for collecting, processing and transmitting data to the management system is proposed to be dealt by the compatibility principle – by designing the system with account to organization specifics, technological process, qualification of human resources, techniques and software for export / import of information from the existing system to the newly designed one. Methodical aspects of budgeting by use of the information platform are synchronized with the phases of budgeting process, which will simplify the choice of software for computerization. This is supposed to simplify problem solutions related with preparation, control, analysis and adjustment of various types of budgets.

    Key words: budgeting, economic security, computerization, information systems, management system.

 

 

L. О. Yashchenko,

PhD in Economics, Senior Researcher,

Senior Research of Department for Economic Studies,

Food Resources Institute of the

National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine

 

Statistical Forecasting of Producer Price Index for Foods, Beverages and Tobaccos

     Food and beverage industry is the most significant industry for the Ukrainian economy: it accounts for nearly 1/4 in the total industrial sales, and nearly 1/5 in the total exports. This raises the importance of forecasting key indicators of the industry performance, with special emphasis on index of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos.

     The objective of the paper is to show methodological tools for statistical forecasting for stationary and non-stationary dynamic series with monthly or quarterly periodicity by use of linear regression methods, chain substitutions and seasonal coefficients, which can be realized in MS Excel. The best method is chosen by indexes of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos, computed for January 2007 – September 2016.

    Dynamic series are divided into stationary and non-stationary ones. A non-stationary dynamic series can consist of three main components: trend, seasonal component for monthly or quarterly data (cyclic component for yearly data), and irregular (random) component. Stationarity of a series is checked by Dickey – Fuller test. Each type of dynamic series uses its own methods of statistical forecasting: for a stationary series the method of chain substitution should be chosen, for a non-stationary series with a trend the linear regression will be the best, for a series with seasonal component the method of seasonal coefficients should be chosen, for a series with trend and seasonal component the method of seasonal coefficients should be used.

    It is found by Dickey – Fuller test that the series of index of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos is a stationary one, i. e. the one requiring the method of chain substitutions for forecasting. Yet, all the three methods were approbated for illustration purposes. Index of producer price for foods, beverages and tobaccos is estimated by the three methods of statistical forecasting for the period of September – December 2016. The computations confirm practicability of the chain substitution method for forecasting stationary dynamic series. It is found that the most significant measure for assessing quality of the forecasts is correlation coefficient.

 

 

L. I. Hinchuk,

Postgraduate student,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Auditing

 

Improvement of Legislative Acts of Ukraine in Statistics Field

    Many legal acts have been subject to amendment in part of redistribution of powers in connection with the administrative reform, the Decree No 1085 “On Optimization of Central Executive Power Bodies” (enforced on 9 December, 2010), and the Law of Ukraine No 5463-VI “On Amendment of Some Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Activities of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, Other Central Executive Power Bodies, Which Activities are Directed and Coordinated by Respective Ministers” (enforced on 16 October, 2012). As a result of the amendment, official statistics bodies forfeited the right to approve statistical methodologies, statistical reporting documents, standard forms for primary reporting documents required for statistical observations, including the ones on administrative offences, by issuing legal acts (in form of official resolutions). This comes contrary to the principle of professional autonomy of the official statistics, fixed in EU’s Acquis Communautaire in statistics field. According to Article 355, Chapter 5 (“Statistics”), Section V (“Economic and Sectoral Cooperation”) of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU, the national statistics system has to be built on fundamental principles of UN on official statistics with consideration to EU’s Acquis Communautaire in statistics field, the European Statistics Code of Practice in particular, in order to harmonize with European norms and standards.

    To comply with the international legal obligations in statistics, stemming from Items 355−359, Chapter 5, Section V of the Association Agreement, Ukraine needs to establish the professionally autonomous official statistics, supposed to produce the necessary statistical information, including the one on administrative offences. This calls for the amendments to the Ukrainian legislation, which would legally fix the norm assigning the special status to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in order to implement the statutory provision on professional autonomy of the official statistics bodies in Ukraine, and specify the powers of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine to approve methodologies and statistical reporting documents required for official statistics observations, including the ones on administrative offences.

    The need for the abovementioned amendments in legislative acts of Ukraine is caused by the international legal obligations of Ukraine, stemming from the Association Agreement between Ukraine and EU, to harmonize them with fundamental principles of UN on official statistics with consideration to EU’s Acquis Communautaire in statistics field, the European Statistics Code of Practice notably.

   Keywords: statistical methodology, statistical reporting documents, legislative acts of Ukraine in statistics field, statistical information, administrative offences, statistical survey, fundamental principles of UN on official statistics.

 

 

S. S. Zalubovska,

PhD in Economics,

Associate Professor, Department of Finance,

E-mail: [email protected];

V. A. Melnyk,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Department of Management of Foreign Economic Activity,

E-mail: [email protected];

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Analysis of the Pension System in Ukraine: Realities and International Experience

   Analysis of legal aspects involved in the pension system and studies of demographic indicators measuring this system capacity has been increasingly important due to the critical role of the pension system as part of broader system for social security. The article contains analysis of the pension system in Ukraine and the direction of its reforms, especially the reforms of solidarity system of pensions, prevailing now in Ukraine.

   Demographic and economic indicators that have impact on the pension level in Ukraine are studied: pension age and average life expectancy, employed population aged 15–70. It is emphasized that the increasing employment in the Ukrainian economy has no effect for the pension level, because the number of people in the pension age has been increasing by higher rates that the employment number. The indicators of minimal and maximal pensions, cost of living, minimal and maximal wage in Ukraine are studied. A comparative analysis of demographic indicators and pension indicators in Ukraine and selected countries of Europe and other world is made. The analysis shows wide gap between Ukraine and the above countries, including new EU member countries, by pension level. The living standard of pensioners is estimated by net pension income, derived as a percentage of net average earnings. For the individual income, which equals to the average, it is derived as the replacement rate. Results of pension modeling for different levels of individual earnings are presented.

    The conclusion is made from the analysis that the central problems of the Ukrainian pension system are low pensions of the majority of the population in the pension age and the imbalanced budget of the Ukrainian Pension Fund.

   Keywords: pension system, life expectancy, pensioner, minimal pension, maximal pension, minimal wage, maximal wage.

 

 

G. B. Cherusheva,

PhD sciences pédagogiques, maître de conférences,

Le professeur de la chaire de la philosophie et des sciences socio-humanitaires;

V. V. Parkhomenko,

PhD sciences économiques, maître de conférences,

Le professeur de la chaire des sciences fondamentales économiques,

E-mail: [email protected];

Académie nationale de statistique, comptabilité et audit

 

Approche synergétique comme la base méthodologique du système de l’éducation professionnelle

    Dans cet article on considère lapproche synergétique, les principes de synergie ainsi que lutilisation dun méthode synergétique à la recherche de l’éducation professionnelle.

   Les mots-clés: synergie, principes de synergie, méthodologie synergétique, système ouvert, éducation professionnelle

 

 

K. Borycki,

Magister rzeczowego administrowania,

Prezes Zarządu Benteler Distribution Poland Sp.zo.o.,

E-mail: borycki[email protected]tlen.pl

 

Społeczna odpowiedzialność przedsiębiorstw na podstawie normy ISO 26000 Guidance on social responsibility

    ISO 26000 jest normą zapewniającą powszechne zrozumienie z szerokiej perspektywy odpowiedzialności społecznej. Jest wśród dokumentów zalecanych przez Komisję Europejską dla organizacji poszukujących formalnego podejścia do wdrażania odpowiedzialności społecznej. Może to być realizowane we wszystkich typach organizacjipublicznych, prywatnych i pozarządowych, niezależnie od ich wielkości i lokalizacji.

    Słowa kluczowe: przewodnik ISO 26000, społeczna odpowiedzialność, globalne korporacje, certyfikacja, zarządzanie przedsiębiorstwem.

 

 

K. Borycki,

Master of Business Administration,

General Director of “Benteler Distribution Poland” Ltd.

 

Social Responsibility of Enterprises under the Standard ISO 26000 Guidance on Social Responsibility

      ISO 26000 is a norm providing common understanding of social responsibility from a wide perspective. It is among documents recommended by the European Commission to organisations seeking formal approach towards social responsibility launch. It can be implemented in all kinds of organisations – public, private and non-government, irrespectively of their size or location.

     Keywords:ISO 26000 Guidance, social responsibility, global corporations, certification, corporate management

 

 

A. M. Yerina,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Professor of Statistics and Demography Department,

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

 

International Ratings: Statistical Aspects of Computing and Application.

Part 1. Index of Economic Freedom and Global Competitiveness Index

   Use of ratings as analytical tools for finding out competitive advantages of global economic actors has been increasingly important in the globalizing economic area, accelerating processes of international integration and the growing interdependence of countries. International ranks are an important source of information on capacities and performance of counties. Ranks, highlighting strong and weak sides effecting the country’s position in the global system of coordinates, are an indicator of the need for measures to eliminate shortcomings or broaden opportunities for enhancing competitive advantages.

    Rating algorithms differ by set of key indicators included in a rating system and aggregation method. A rating algorithm is realized in several consecutive phases. The most complicated phases in the statistical methodology context are: unification of scales for estimation of key indicators; and justification of algorithms for information compression at all the hierarchical levels of a rating system. The article is focused on methodological aspects for estimation of Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) and Global Competitiveness Index (GCI): structure of rating system, estimation scales and unification of key indicators, algorithms for compression of estimates and their analytical capacities.

    By IEF rank, countries are divided into five categories: from free to oppressed ones. Studies at the global level show direct correlation between economic freedom and high economic performance of countries. By Index of Economic Freedom – 2016, Ukraine has 162nd position with 46.8 scores. Of the ten components of economic freedom, Ukraine has high scores only in three: trade, fiscal and monetary freedom. The strongest negative impact on the Ukraine’s rank comes from unfavorable investment climate, weak protection of property rights, weak freedom from corruption, weak fiscal freedom and large government spending.

    By Global Competitiveness Index – 2016, Ukraine has 79th position with 4.03 scores. Ukraine lags far behind by factors like institutional environment, macroeconomic stability, effectiveness of financial and commodity markets, quality of national business climate, technological development. Ukraine still keeps relatively high positions in education system and size of domestic market. It follows that the government’s effort need to be focused on stabilization of public finances, recovering of bank system, setting up business friendly environment, which will enable for implementing the existing innovation and human capacities and lay the ground for gradual growth of international competitiveness of Ukraine and adaptation of the domestic economy for global transformations.

    Keywords: rating, competitive positions, Index of Economic Freedom, Global Competitiveness Index, positioning of countries in international rating system.

 

 

O. L. Sherstiuk,

PhD in Economics,Associate Professor,

Doctoral student, Department of Financial Audit,

Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics

 

Formalization of User Confidence in Financial Information on Audit Results

    Problem solutions in audit are aimed to provide users with sufficient confidence in its functional capacities when formulating, justifying and implementing economic decisions. The source of this confidence is professional opinion of an auditor, formed on the basis of the procedures and activities related to the evaluation of their results. Auditor opinion is formalized in the audit report that is supposed to include the results of the auditor’s activities. The aim of the study is to analyze the aspects of formalization of confidence provided to users of financial information by the results of audit.

     The formalization method depends on user’s access to data carrier. When making up the report, an auditor can formalize the opinion in either direct or indirect way. The direct way is used when the results of auditor’s work are transferred from the working papers to the report (e. g. to paragraphs containing auditor’s opinion or explanations to it) without formal change. The indirect way is used when the data of working papers are going to be modified, summarized and systematized in separate paragraphs of the report.

    We propose to identify the three periods of confidence.

 1) The period of unlimited confidence; its duration is not fixed because the financial information based on assumptions and conceptual foundations workable in the past does not require adjustments due to their change or the change is not expected;

2) Conditionally limited period of confidence, when the information is expected to be used once adjustment is made according to the change in the assumptions upon which it is formed;

3) Period of limited confidence, which usually has fixed duration.

     To our opinion, the proposed approach to formalizing the confidence of users of financial information allows auditors and users to have the appropriate understanding of the information and its functional capacities.

    Keywords: confidence, elements of confidence, ways of formalization, period of unlimited confidence, period of conditionally limited confidence, period of limited confidence.

 

 

E. V. Chekotovskyi,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor

 

D. P. Juravskyi: the First Ukrainian Theorist of Statistical Science (in memory of the 160th anniversary of his death)

    The contribution to the development of statistical science of the prominent Ukrainian theorist-statistician of the first half of ХІХ century Dmytro Petrovych (1810–1856) is discussed.

    It is emphasized that D. Juravskyi is the first Ukrainian statistical theorist who contributed profoundly in the scientifically grounded approach to classifying statistics as a science and in its methodology.

    Extensive review of his book “On Sources and Use of Statistical Information”, published 170 years ago in August, 1846, in Kyiv, is given. As one of the best and original works on theoretical statistics, this book is still important today. It was highly appreciated by the distinguished statistical scientists of the Russian Empire. Soviet and Russian statisticians also referred to the prominent role of D. Juravskyi in the history of Russian statistical science and even called him the founder of Russian statistical science and Russian theoretical statistics. It is emphasized that today D. Juravskyi is described in Russian literature on science and education as a prominent Russian scientist. Evidences are given to demonstrate that D. Juravskyi can be appropriately qualified as a genuine Ukrainian statistician.

     Theoretical principles of statistical science, expounded by D. Juravskyi in three sections of his book, are highlighted. The first section of the book is devoted to statistics as a science, its general significance, the need for critical review of the applied tools, significance of statistical studies for government and public, for various social classes, statistical studies of morality and education of the population, etc. D. Juravskyi notes that statistics of that period, being at very low level, could not be qualified as a science. He was the first one in the history of Russian statistics to discuss authenticity of statistical data and their adequacy for economic analysis. He criticizes the official sources of statistical data as unreliable.

    D. Juravskyi was the first in the Russian statistical literature to emphasize the necessity and importance of budgetary inspections.

      In the second section of the book, D. Juravskyi made critical review of the sources of statistical data in the Russian Empire, pointed out to their incompleteness and unreliability, scarified the unreliability of metrical books and other sources of statistical information and showed the ways for their proper arrangement.

     In the third section, D. Juravskyi defines the general object and method of statistics as a science, gives extensive characteristic to the statistical science in Russian Empire of his and earlier time, proposes specific ways and facilities for proper arrangement of statistical services, defines the objective of the central statistical authority, demonstrates his conception of the integrated statistical system etc.

     Key words: D. P. Juravskyi, statistics, science, theory, methodology, statistical data, statistical sources, statistical researches, organization of statistical survey.