Abstracts

 

S. S. Herasymenko,

DcS in Economics, Professor,

Acting Head of Statistics Department,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit;

V. S. Herasymenko,

PhD in Economics,

Senior Lecturer,

HEI “National Academy of Management”

 

Statistical Methods for Information Quality Management

     Information quality is a central factor in achieving the planned levels of social and economic parameters. The overwhelming majority of the existing approaches to information quality management do not consider information as a resource enabling for comprehensive measurement of the processes that are going to be managed, which results are critical for the effectiveness of management decisions. Management of either information quality or socio-economic processes is not a single act; it continues in parallel with a process that is subject to management decision. The phase of current management deals with control of the conformity between intermediate planned parameters and reported ones, to find out the reasons for errors and develop correcting actions in order to reduce the negative impact of the errors on the final result. This problem can be adequately solved by use of high quality information which assessment and management constitutes a complicated and important statistical task given the global informatization and computerization of the modern times. It is argued that information can be considered as high quality one when its structure and content meet the managers’ needs. Managers, meanwhile, have to set up the problem to be solved by collecting data. It means that the set of parameters to be asked by a manager from the statistics has to be constructed in the last turn. A manager acts as a customer of statistical information. A manager will, therefore, be capable to assure information quality, if he keeps with the principle of relevance when formulating an information order for a statistician, which is an operative principle of the Ukrainian statistical bodies. This principle can be met once a set of parameters is constructed by key statistical methods and approaches, cluster analysis in particular. This method allows for reducing the number of parameters provided by the reporting information by 30–40% without affecting the relevance of managerial information. The information becomes more objective, its quality increases, which enhances the management performance.

    Keywords: statistical data, information, statistical information, managerial information, quality, information quality.

 

 

V. H. Sarioglo,

DSc in Economics,

Head of Department,

Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies

of the NAS of Ukraine

 

“Big Data” as an Information Source and a Toolkit for Official Statistics: Capacities, Problems, Prospects

      Issues are discussed, related with potential use by official statistics of the so called “Big Data”, which refers to data extracted from websites, mobile phones, cash machines in retail sales networks, traffic surveillance cameras etc. These data are nicknamed as “big” mainly due to large scopes, not enabling for their processing by standard statistical tools but requiring special software and techniques.

   It is argued that “Big Data” have advantages such as timeliness, wide coverage of targeted population segments; their collection does not require special questionnaires or surveys, training or recruiting numerous paid personnel like supervisors or interviewers. When “Big Data” are used, accuracy requirements can be loosened, analysis of phenomena and processes can be made by quite simple procedures. As scopes of these data are increasing incessantly, often second by second, the only thing to do is to process them in a proper way, to analyze and use the output information.

    It is emphasized that use of “Big Data” is complicated due to the need to address problems like indeterminacy of the covered data sets; bias of estimates; accessibility of data, because they are mostly collected by private companies or belong to them; protection of private data, storage of large scopes of “Big Data” and their processing; statistical incorporation of numerous large data sets; risks of potential manipulation with data etc.

    Arguments are given that applied and official statistics have prototypes of tools capable to solve a major part of the above problems, once properly developed and adapted. They include methods for calibration of survey results, statistical aggregation of data, or model-based assessment of data. As regard “cloud” technologies for data storage and processing, their use can solve the problems of weak capacity of data carriers in statistical offices, and the problems of storage of private and confidential data.

    Results of studies conducted by leading statisticians of our days demonstrate that official statistics has no alternatives to use of “Bid Data”. The sooner this advanced field of statistics and information technologies comes in focus of the State Statistics Service, universities and research institutions, the easier new information sources and new statistical toolkit can be integrated in the official statistics within the forthcoming ten or fifteen years.

    Keywords: “Big Data”, information sources, statistical toolkit, official statistics, information technologies.

 

 

O. O. Vasyechko,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

University Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne;

O. M. Motuzka,

PhD in Economics,

Acting Associate Professor of Department of

Foreign Economic Activity,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Issues of Evaluating Indirect Effects from Foreign Direct Investment for the Ukrainian Economy

     Theoretical approaches to analysis of indirect effect from foreign direct investment (FDI) on the Ukrainian economy are studied. The process of direct investment is a very dynamic phenomenon: when reacting on the market or political reality, it keeps generating new complex organizational forms, thus outpacing the efforts for its theoretical substantiation. Approaches to assessment of indirect FDI effect for a national economy still remains a blank in the above problem.

     Indirect FDI effect constitutes an unexpected FDI effect, i. e. an unintended one. In the current economic literature such effect is referred to as “spillover” effect. It means that an investment object is saturated by actions or information (in broader sense) to the extent that their scopes exceed the internal needs of the object and become in a way accessible by other objects, with unexpected (positive or negative) effects for them. Therefore, the principal feature of spillover effect is in its being an uncontrolled effect on a foreign object that has a contact with a direct investment object. This effect can be either positive or negative.

    Statistical challenges in assessing spillover effects from FDI occur in many dimensions. The most problematic thing is that spillover effects can hardly be measured in quantitative ways and have rather qualitative manifestations. To be assessed, spillover effects of each FDI need to be comprehensively classified by type, mechanism and vector. As the problems related with assessment of FDI effects are multifaceted, they can be dealt in a multidisciplinary way, with engaging experts in economics, social policy, statistics and econometrics. Once solved, they offer a powerful tool for analysis, control and substantiation of managerial decision making on macroeconomic policy.

    Keywords: analysis, evaluation, foreign direct investment, attraction of investment, spillover effect, indirect effect.

 

 

Ya. V. Kolesnik,

PhD in Economics, Senior Economist,

National Bank of Ukraine

 

Statistical approaches to the evaluation of business reputation of banks

    In the article different approaches to the estimation of goodwill and considering it as an intangible asset at the bank are considered. The author proposed the statistical express method for the evaluation of goodwill based on the usage of the matrix of the characteristics. The goodwill can be considered as the original “rating” of the bank from the point of view of different task groups. This rating can be received as a result of integrated assessment, also made by statistical methods. The goodwill which appeared in connection with the purchase of property complex (in whole or its part) is considered as part of intangible asset. It is proved that positive goodwill increases the cost of the bank during its sale or consolidation, and negative goodwill lowers it, and in connection with this fact there emerges the necessity of managing the risk of losing the bank’s goodwill. The author proposes the method of building the rating model of the estimation of goodwill. For building the rating model of the estimation of goodwill the usage of the matrix of the characteristics is proposed, which allows to divide the banks in homogeneous groups with similar quality of goodwill. Every task groups imposes a particular set of requirements to the goodwill of the bank that works with clients, contracting parties, partners, shareholders and other task groups. It is inappropriate to make the same demands to the estimation of goodwill of all these groups, that is why the criteria of the estimation of goodwill should consider the belonging of the bank to a particular group. For example, we can group the banks according to the capital or assets dimension. Besides that it is useful to indicate universal banks and the group of specialized banks inside each group. Depending on the necessary specification inside the specialized banks it is also possible to divide them further into groups. Then inside each group it is useful to perform a different clusterization according to the unified pattern.

    For the statistical express estimation, the author proposes a system of criteria of goodwill of the homogeneous group of commercial banks which is based only on open public data. During the analysis of the received results it is proposed to use the grouping of the banks into subgroups. The usage of the indicated method allows each bank to evaluate its position in the group of the banks similar in value.

    Keywords: bank; business reputation; risk of business reputation loss; goodwill, rating.

 

 

A. P. Revenko,

DSc in Economics, Professor

 

Incomes and Expenditures of Ukrainian Households from 2015 till Earlier Half of 2016

    Principles of organization and practice of the surveys devoted to living conditions of households, conducted by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, are studied. Change in the households’ incomes and expenditures from 2015 till earlier half of 2016 and the impact of inflation on them is analyzed. Consumption of basic foods by the population and self-assessment of material condition by the households is shown.

    It is demonstrated that studies of households’ incomes and expenditures constitute the most significant part of broader surveys devoted to living conditions of households. These surveys meet all the international requirements, including recommendations of the International Labor Organization “Consumer Price Indices”, approved at the end of 2003, and Eurostat recommendations “Household Budget Surveys in the EU. Methodology and Recommendation for Harmonization”.

   It is emphasized that the household surveys need to cover the expenditures on electricity and utility services, bearing in mind the society’s concern with them. In these surveys, monetary incomes of the households include minor subsidies and discounts in cash, received, by large, as a compensation for the purchased coal.

   The need for recalculating the expenditures in “constant prices” is justified: because in the household surveys these expenditures are given in reported prices, they may measure the structural change rather than the real dynamics.

   Average monthly per capita consumption of foods by the households is analyzed in terms of primary product. It is demonstrated that consumption of selected categories of foods features a wide gap between urban and rural households, and, expectedly, between decile groups of the households.

   The analysis covers data on self-assessment of incomes by the households, collected through the program for survey on living conditions of households, conducted by the State Statistics Service annually. It should be stressed that these data are based on subjective judgments on whether or not the disposable income suffices to satisfy basic and related needs.

   Keywords: households’ incomes, households’ expenditures, survey on living conditions of households, consumption of foods, self-assessment of incomes, material well-being.

 

 

L. H. Tkachenko,

PhD in Economics, Senior Research Fellow,

Leading Researcher,

Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the NAS of Ukraine

 

Improving the Monitoring of the Registered Labour Market

    The registered labour market constitutes a segment of demand and supply with participants taking use of the social protection and/or intermediate services of the employment office, e. g. being subject to interventions at labour market with relevant data recorded in the employment office database. The need to harmonize administrative data of the Ukrainian State Employment Service to methodologies and standards of the European statistics has become especially important in the context of the Euro-integration course, proclaimed by Ukraine.

   Ukraine features a very wide gap between the registered unemployment indicators and the unemployment measured by the ILO methodology. The trends of domestic and ILO measures of unemployment may be incommensurable and even divergent, especially in crisis periods: while in 2014 the registered unemployment in Ukraine fell by 29 thousand persons, it grew by 271.1 thousand by the ILO methodology. In spite of the severity of the current crisis, only one of the four unemployed persons registers in the Ukrainian State Employment Service and, thus, is entitled for social protection. In EU countries, the more common situation is one with the registered unemployment higher than that measured by the ILO methodology.

   The legal criteria and practices of granting and suspending the status of registered unemployed, existing in Ukraine, are meant to constrain artificially the increasing numbers of registered unemployed, to avoid extra spending. Because the dynamic series on registered unemployment in Ukraine cannot be considered as an adequate measurement of the labour market tendencies and/or structural characteristics of the unemployed, it cannot be used for quality assessment of unemployment indicators or their modeling by the ILO methodology, at the level of small territories and target groups in particular.

   Due to the focus on job placement indicators in assessing the Ukrainian State Employment Service performance, its effort is concentrated on filing of vacancies announced by employers, whereas the assistance in searching more suitable jobs for unemployed persons becomes a matter of secondary importance. Data on numbers and structural characteristics of vacancies are often taken for assessment and forecasting of the demand for labour force. However, these data measure only the small segment of the total demand for labour force, often with lower quality or skills. Another problem related with administrative data of the Ukrainian State Employment Service is lack of a clear classification of interventions, required, inter alia, to draw the line between active and passive programs of labour market.

   The analysis enables for outlining three principal areas for improvement of the monitoring of the registered labour market: extending the coverage of phenomena/processes at labour market; revaluation of the indicators’ weight in view of their conformity to the political objectives; introduction of the Eurostat classification for labour market policy.

    Keywords: labor market, unemployment, registered unemployment, labor market policy, active and passive programs of labor market, administrative data, monitoring.

 

 

O. K. Yelisieieva,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Head of Department for Statistics, Accounting and Economic Informatics,

Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University;

P. V. Khazan,

Applicant,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Economic and Statistical Analysis of Solar Power in Ukrainian Regions

     Renewable power is an urgent issue of today and an important component of the sustainable development in Ukraine. It is a must for the national economy as it reduces negative effects for the environment and human health. Also, the share of renewable power sources in the total power generation needs to be increased due to the rapidly growing costs of thermal and electric power.

    The Ukrainian power sector is dominated by out-dated, ecologically unfriendly and cost-ineffective technologies for generation of thermal and electric power at thermal, nuclear and water-power plants. Their construction and exploitation has led to great ecological damage due to withdrawal of large areas of lands to locate the wastes and flooding of fertile soils. High probability of accidents at nuclear power plants is fraught with the extreme danger and great losses in case of their occurrence. Clear evidences are the greatest global accidents at nuclear power plants: Chernobyl and Fukusima-1.

    Economic and statistical analysis of solar power for 8 Ukrainian regions with the varying climate conditions (by solar radiation and temperature) and economic profiles is made by computing the parameters of solar power plants. The parameters selected for the analysis are maximal capacity for private households (30 kilowatts) and for commercial use (1 megawatt).

    The potentialities for the development of solar power are estimated by area of lands and number of private households in rural area. Comparative analysis of the results and statistical data shows high potentials for the development of solar power in private household sector and industrial sector. Its development will enhance power safety of the Ukrainian state, create new safe jobs, promote decentralization and development of territories, and improve investment climate and technological pattern on the way to “green” modernization of the Ukrainian economy.

   Keywords: renewable power, statistical assessment, renewable power sources, solar power, sustainable development, electric power.

 

 

O. I. Kulynych,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Professor of Department for Mathematics, Statistics and Information Technology,

Khmelnytsky University of Management and Law

 

Comprehensive Assessment of Indexes of Statics, Dynamics and Intensity of the Ukrainian regions’ Development in 2015

   Each country, region or business enterprise needs comprehensive assessment of the socio-economic development. Justification of the reasonability and necessity for systematization of the contemporary statistical methodology for assessment of correlations of socio-economic development indexes at regional level, being important and relevant, requires the developed assessment methodology and statistical tools focused on quantitative description of the existing socio-economic development at regional level. Statistical studies of correlations of socio-economic development indexes, computed by use of regional data, enable for modeling of processes taking place at country and regional level, to find the nature of structural change and predict its consequences.

    The method for ranking of the Ukrainian regions by indexes of statics, dynamics and intensity of socioeconomic development in 2015 by use of the method of complex statistical coefficients is proposed.

   The main problems solved by the method of complex statistical coefficients through standardizing the values of the studied indexes irrespective of their expression form (absolute values, ratios or mean values of statics and dynamics, or ratios of dynamics and fulfillment of plan) are ranking of regions by socio-economic development (business and financial performance of enterprises) in a given period; the ranks can be used for taking sound decisions on performance enhancement for the entities with bottoms ranks in the overall rating; when variational series are used, the ranks of the entities under study can be found; when the dynamic series are used, the ranks of the entities over periods of time covered by the study can be found, to determine the rhythm in time.

   The method for comprehensive assessment uses data from the current statistical reporting; no other data are required. It can be used for comprehensive assessment of results at micro- and macrolevel.

   The comprehensive assessment is significant inasmuch as it helps develop approaches to improve the quality of planning and management. Use of complex statistical coefficients for characteristics of economic activities or regions is a necessary condition of this important objective.

    Keywords: rating of regions, assessment method, weighting coefficient of variances, comprehensive assessment of development, socio-economic development.

 

 

A. M. Yerina,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Professor of Statistics and Demography Department,

Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv

 

International Ratings: Statistical Aspects of Computing and Application. Part II. Indexes of Innovation and Human Development

     Innovation activity and technological renovation in all the social spheres has become a prime factor behind economic growth and competitiveness in advanced countries of the world. The innovation-driven economy ensures the economic power of a country, lays the ground for human development and high standards of life quality. The strengthening role of the innovation component in the socio-economic development raises the importance of studies on innovation capacities and national innovation systems’ performance. Methods for computation and use of international ratings of innovation-driven development and human development of countries in the context of global information area are highlighted.

    An important source of data on the development of national innovation systems and their impact on the country’s position in the global system of coordinates is Global Innovation Index (GII). Its computation method is based on combination of innovative capacities and results of innovating. Apart of comparative analysis, GII, based on the rich and singular set of data, allows for identification of relative advantages and weak sides of national innovation systems and offers an important tool for innovation policy assessment at country level. Analysis of Ukraine’s position in GII rating for 2016 gives clear evidence of the irregular and imbalanced development of various components in the national innovation system: whatever is associated with human resources (education, availability of skilled workforce, labor market, patent activity), remains at relatively high level, whereas institutional and organizational components, regulatory framework, innovation activity of companies are not favorable for the innovation-driven development.

   The contemporary innovation process implies important role of information and communication technologies (ICT), associated with rapid dissemination of radically new patterns for communication, social integration, mode of life, education etc. Monitoring of ICT advancements in various countries, measurement of digital gap, assessment of capacities for ICT development considering the existing opportunities and skills are problems dealt with through constructing the IDI rating – ICT Development Index. As shown by IDI 2016, countries leading by ICT development are ones with high income level, which confirms correlation between income and advancement in ICT.

    Apart from design and dissemination of new technologies, the innovation-driven development is associated with “innovative” attitude to a human. It is humans with appropriate education, skills or experiences who set up frontiers and resources for technological, economic and social modernization of a society. Rates of economic growth per se, however high, will not ensure the social progress unless the primary conditions for humans exist: to live long and healthy life; to acquire, extend and renew one’s knowledge; to have access to basic necessities sustaining good life standards. An adequate tool for measurement of human development in the global context is Human Development Index (HDI), aggregating prime components of human development: health and longevity, education level, material welfare.

    Methodological approaches to computation and use of various international ratings, highlighted in the article, illustrate the rich arsenal of statistical methods for standardization and convolution of indicators and analytical capacities of integral estimates. Each index carries its analytical mission; each one is constructed by its set of basic indicators and has its singular computation methodology. The massive base of systematized data, enabling for quick identification of strong and weak sides of national capacities, can be used for making informed managerial decisions.

    Keywords: rating, competitive advantages, competitive positions, Global Innovation Index, ICT Development Index, Human Development Index.

 

 

V. O. Shevchuk,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit,

E-mail: [email protected]

 

Natural Foundations for Management of Balanced Economic Development. Part I. The transition to management concepts based on the physical economy

    The economic management should be considered as a component of the nature and rely upon the laws analogous to the ones of the nature. Unlike the nature with its implicit capacity to reproduce, the economy needs conscious management. The theoretical and practical framework for economic management needs to build on theoretical and applied knowledge pertaining to the needs of the economic development harmonized with the nature. The study aims to substantiate physical and economic foundations for management of economic development.

    Theoretical framework for the economic development strategy is studied from the perspective of the unique intellectual legacy of S. Podolynskyi, as well as V. Vernadskyi and M. Rudenko who continued and elaborated physical-economic ideas of their outstanding predecessor. The innovative results of Ukrainian scientists in physical economy, conforming to the arguments of advanced management theories, form physical-economic knowledge based on the natural principles of balanced economic development.

    It is concluded that the fundamental principles of nature underlying economic management in our times are (i) keeping with the law of energy conservation, and (ii) consideration for energy distinction between the living and the non-living. These fundamental scientific theses have the critical role in sustaining the economic balance and the long-term development of economic management..

   Key words: physical-economic knowledge, economic balance, long-term economic development, management of economic development, physical economy.

 

 

T. H. Bondaruk,

Dsc in Economics, Professor,

Head of Finance Department,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

 Peculiarities of State Regulation for the Development of Local Self-Governance

    Theoretical and methodological framework for regulation of the development of local self-governance is extended, with outlining the ways to strengthen its contribution as a factor promoting social and economic development of a country. It is demonstrated that the regulatory framework at local level covers all the governance areas, including regulation of local self-governance. The essential meaning of the regulatory policy at local level is defined as an area of State policy, focused on regulation of legal relations between regulatory bodies, between the entities charged with regulatory functions and the entities that are subject to regulation; it includes regulation of local self-governance, territorial communities and business entities for rational use of local resources and essential growth in the living standards of the population.

    The central reasons behind the administrative reform in Ukraine are outlined: ineffective organization of the executive power at district and oblast level, with the highly centralized power (instead of decentralization); inadequate administrative and territorial division, characterized by large numbers of small localities; ineffective local self-governance, characterized by financial incapacity of the primary (basic) segment in the local selfgovernance.

    Directions of the administrative reform in Ukraine are outlined: building up the new legal framework for the public governance in Ukraine; building up new institutes, organizations and instruments for the governance and the administrative and territorial division; staffing of the new governance system; laying and strengthening the new financial and economic foundations for operation of the governance system; scientific and information support to the governance system; building up the mechanisms for scientific and information monitoring of the governance system performance. Ways to implement the reform of the administrative and territorial system in Ukraine are proposed.

    Keywords: state regulation, local self-governance, regulatory policy, territorial community, decentralization of power, administrative reform.