Abstracts

K. S. Akbash,

PhD in Physics & Mathematics,

Senior Lecturer of the Department;

N.O. Pasichnyk,

PhD in Pedagogy, Associate Professor,

Associate Professor of the Department;

Department of Applied Mathematics, Statistics and Economics;

R. Ya. Ryzhniak,

DSc in History, Professor,

Professor of the Department of Mathematics;

Central Ukrainian State Pedagogical University named after Volodymyr Vynnychenko

 

Determination of Indicators of the Gender Groups Distribution

by Characteristic Features

 

      The article defines the structure of the data on the gender structure of the group of scientific and educational workers of the Faculty, and certain specific groups among teachers who were subjects of the educational process at the end of 2015-2016 school years based on statistical and qualitative factors of determination of the gender proportions. There was chosen a way to determine the structure of selected data correlation and statistical cluster obtained because of factors of determination of the gender proportion of certain specific groups of scientific and educational workers – the members of the educational process of the faculty of Physics and Mathematics of the Kirovohrad Volodymyr Vynnychenko State Pedagogical University. The article defines that this coefficient determines the measure of the ratio of distribution of characteristic features (dominant) in gender groups.

   The achieving the goal of the study was conducted by solving of local problems: the gathering of statistical data and primary analysis; determination of factors of gender proportion in the contingent of teaching staff of the Faculty and their individual specific groups; event correlation and cluster analysis and the consequent determination of the structure of data on the gender composition of the faculty and its specific groups.

     The authors conclude on the effect of choosing different characteristic features (dominant) to define data structures of gender composition of teaching staff of the faculty. Study of the data structure of gender composition of certain distinctive groups of scientific and pedagogical workers (by characteristic features (dominants): professors, associate professors, lecturers, PhDs, Doctors of sciences, people without scientific titles at the age from 20 to 35, from 35 to 60 and over 60years old), based on the statistical determination of the coefficients of gender specific weight gave grounds to conclude that the distribution of characteristic features (dominants) in gender subgroups of different groups of departments is similar. However, in the course of the study it became clear that the results of the analysis of the data structure concerning gender composition of groups of scientific and pedagogical workers, who possessed characteristic features (dominants), depending on their age, were not affected by the final uniting distribution by clusters. In addition, the article concludes that the use of analogue coefficient of gender proportion in statistical research will make it possible to determine the structure of data in a given group (aggregate) subject to allocation ratio combining characteristic features (dominant) in certain subgroups (sample).

    Key words: correlation analysis, cluster analysis, factor of gender proportion, gender parity index, сharacteristic features (dominants).

 

 

О. V. Zhurauliou,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Associate Professor of Department of Foreign Economic Activity,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Statistical Modeling of Institutional Transformations Using Panel Data

 

    The article is devoted to the important problem of assessment of institutional transformation by modeling of panel data. It is demonstrated that multidimensional statistical methods allow for the reasonable selection of the probabilistic statistical model that fits best to output statistical data and description of the real behavior of the studied set of objects than the great many other similar models, and for the assessment of reliability and accuracy of conclusions made on the basis of limited statistical information. The proposed theoretical model reveals the statistical impact of social globalization, openness of trade, property rights, human development and share of services in GDP on economic growth in countries differentiated by economic performance.

    Of the institutional factors with an impact on economic growth, found by the study, statistically significant are both traditional factors (index of property right, GDP by PPP) and ones implicit in the globalizing economy (Internet users, index of social globalization, share of services in GDP). It allows for the conclusion that economic growth in countries differentiated by economic performance is conditional on institutes. Property rights still remain to be the key factor for effective institutes, and their impact determines the future development trajectory. The significant role belongs to openness of trade, with its positive statistical impact on economic growth. The positive statistical impact of social globalization is also identified.

    Statistical significance of the growing share of services in GDP is demonstrated, which is an attribute of globalization. Special emphasis in statistical modeling is made on the human factor measured by human development index. This index has supreme significance in the complex process of transition from extractive institutes to inclusive ones, because the effectiveness of transformation process depends on the human.

     Key words: panel data, neo-institutionalism, statistical significance, transformation, trajectory of economic development

 

 

O. M. Simachova,

Senior researcher,

AnalystSoft Inc., USA

 

Statistical Modeling of the Large Open Economy of the U.S.

 

     The open economy phenomenon draws close attention of researchers in the era of global economy and trans-nationalization of international economic relations. Along with strong impact on international market and global interest rate, such economies are capable to have significant effects for global conjuncture and determine global factors of economic development.

    Main sources of strength of the American economy are analyzed (rich natural and human resources, strong relations with permanent and reliable trade partners and neighboring countries, the largest financial system and the most reliable world currency). It is argued that large companies accounting for a major part of the total foreign direct investment of the U.S. are the fundament for the American economy and the main conduit of the country’s economic and political interests. Selected macroeconomic indicators of the U.S. are analyzed, to make economic diagnostics of the current performance of the American economy. The statistical multifactor regression model built by the method of least squares is proposed. Results of the analysis demonstrate negative statistical impact of unemployment and increasing energy dependence on GDP by PPP, and positive statistical impact of household consumption on future development of the American economy.

    It is argued that given the difficult political and economic situation in Ukraine, scientists should examine best practices of leading countries of the world in issues of economic balancing and sources of economic growth, to elaborate reasonable recommendations with due consideration to national specifics. The American economy is a good example of market model operation in 21 century.

   Key words: large open economy, transnationalization, globalization, consumption, GDP structure, regression analysis.

 

 

Т. V. Kobylynska,

PhD in Economics,

Deputy Head of the Department for Processing of Economic Statistics Data,

Chief Statistics Department in Zhytomyr region

 

Statistical Assessment of the Impact of Structural Factors on Economic

Activities of Agricultural Enterprises

 

     Agricultural enterprises have a critical role in the agrarian market of Ukraine, as they account for nearly 60% of the plant-growing output. Studies of the dynamics and structure of production processes at agricultural enterprises are obviously important and expedient due to the need for operative and sound data on their economic performance, required by a wide range of users. Besides that, whatever is produced in the market environment needs to be demanded by the market and be sold with profit, with due consideration for the requirements on rational land use, to maintain the fertility of lands and prevent from their destruction.

    The objective of the study is to conduct statistical analysis of the structure and structural change of the agricultural output produced by agricultural enterprises in Ukraine. Negative and positive tendencies in the structural change of operation at agricultural enterprises by organizational and legal form of proprietorship are analyzed. The indicator of production output in constant prices is used to characterize the dynamics of the total output. It is stressed that it is a key performance indicator in agricultural sector, used for both agricultural enterprises and households. The agricultural output is computed by valuating all the categories of products irrespective of the production location and conditions, by the same price. This algorithm avoids the impact of variations in regional prices for categories of agricultural products and enables for comparative analysis at national and regional level by main agricultural activity (plant-growing, animal husbandry) and category of agricultural producers. The structure and structural change in the agricultural output by product category and form of proprietorship is analyzed. It is shown that while in 2012–2013 agricultural enterprises accounted for average 52.4% of the gross agricultural output, in 2014–2016 their average contribution in the output grew by 3.4 percentage points and reached 55.8%.      

      Key words: statistical analysis, agricultural enterprises, agricultural output, plant-growing, animal husbandry, structure, structural change.

 

 

V. V. Kozlov,

PhD in Engineering, Associate Professor;

Т. V. Tomashevska,

PhD (Engineering), Associate Professor;

Associate Professor of Information Systems and Technologies Department,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Analysis of the Performance of Electronic Commerce in Ukraine

 

   The current phase in the development of economic relations is characterized by the high level of informatization. The rapid science & technology advancement in information and communication technologies pushes up the development of consumption, industry and trade, and lays the background for new forms of economic relations. Electronic commerce is an advanced area of business. Taking advantages from electronic trade, organizations can: considerably reduce financial and time resources, enhance competitiveness, enter new markets, obtain supplementary information on consumer needs, and rapidly respond on the changing demand. Many companies take advantage from electronic commerce and set up pre-sales and after-sales services.

    Today, the Ukrainian market of electronic commerce is undergoing rapid expansion. The objective of the study is to analyze the expansion dynamics of electronic commerce by Ukrainian region and find the latest tendencies in this industry. The analysis is made by statistical data on Internet use in Ukraine. The overall performance of electronic commerce in Ukraine lags far behind the analogous figures of Western countries. Negative effects of the economic crisis, lack of high performing telecommunication networks in a number of Ukrainian regions, and limited use of advanced electronic payment systems hampered the development of the electronic market in Ukraine, and still hamper it in some way. Yet, due to ICT solutions, the environment for electronic commerce, in which the increasing demand pushes up the supply, have recently been improved.

    The method for studying the electronic commerce performance by Ukrainian region by use of the dynamic personified matrix is proposed. On its basis the ranking of Ukrainian regions is built, the regions with the highest performance in electronic commerce are identified, performance trends are analyzed. It is found that the electronic commerce market is concentrated mainly in large cities that are regional centers. The reason behind is that provider firms and firms rendering hosting services are concentrated in large cities, whereas small towns and villages have no access to high quality connection. Therefore, the development of advanced telecommunications market is supposed to contribute to the expansion of the electronic commerce market, enabling to take full advantage from the Ukrainian potential in electronic trade and enhance the competitiveness of Ukrainian business.

     Key words: electronic commerce, electronic trade, ranks, dynamic personified matrix, matrix of positioning.

 

 

A. Z. Korobkin,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

Head of Department of Economic and Low Disciplines,

Belarusian Trade and Economic University of Consumer Cooperatives;

A. Ya. Yakimik,

Postgraduate Student,

Belarusian State Economic University

 

The Main Trends of the Internal Trade and Prospect Direction of Its Development in the Republic of Belarus

 

      In the proposed article brief assessment of current state of retail trade of the Republic of Belarus is carried out with the use of state statistical monitoring materials, as well as, tendencies and perspective directions of its development are defined.

   Research starts with determination of internal trade development tendencies at the beginning of the 21st century under the conditions of world consumer market globalization, the main of which are state regulation growth of food safety and quality of goods; increasing role of trade in formation of manufactured goods assortment; further differentiation of trade forms; expansion of distribution channels by trade companies, including Internet trading; strengthening importance of innovation in trade; increasing role of trade as a factor of region's investment prospects.   

     Estimation of dynamics of retail trade volumes of the Republic of Belarus from 1990 till 2016 at current and comparable prices was made.

    The main part of the article concentrates on study of current state of trade of the Republic of Belarus over recent years. Tendencies of actual change in its volumes are revealed, as well as, under the influence of price factor. Cost indicators of trade volumes are shown both in national currency of the Republic of Belarus and in US dollars for perception convenience of a foreign reader.

    The article examines goods and organizational structure of trade volumes, structure of trade according to forms of ownership and volumes of trade organizations. Tendencies of domestic and imported goods sales, electronic trading development, as well as, sales with the use of bank cards have been identified.

   Separate section of the article explores retail trade of consumer cooperatives, which is currently one of the most significant trading systems of the Republic of Belarus.

    In addition, the article provides a brief state analysis of retail trade network and wholesale trade.

    In conclusion of the article the main trends in development of internal trade of the Republic of Belarus are revealed, as well as, perspective directions of its development are determined, the main of which are growth of private property ratio in number of trade organizations of both retail and wholesale trade; in number of retail facilities and sales volumes; growth of retail sales in current prices and its decline in comparable prices; growth of sales share of food products in total sales volumes; increase of electronic trading and trade with the use of bank cards ratio; increase of ratio of employment in trade; improving of trading network typification and specialization; improving of assortment policy; further development of discounters; development of network trading in district centers and rural areas; growth of electronic trading volumes.

    Key words: internal trade, retail turnover, wholesale turnover, trading stock, consumer cooperatives.

 

 

F. V. Motsnyi,

DSc in Physics & Mathematics, Professor,

Head of Department for Applied Mathematics;

M. E. Sinytskyi,

PhD in Physics & Mathematics, Associate Professor,

Associate Professor of Information Systems and Technology Department;

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Financial and Statistical Analysis of Investment Projects High-Tech Scientific Developments Based on Carbon Nanomaterials

 

    Carbon nanomaterials (graphene, nanotubes, fullerenes, the family of derivatives from Сn ) belong to the miraculous materials of 21 century, which can radically change technologies in the coming years. Thus, unique supercapacitors with the capacity of 10.000 F have been proposed on their basis, which is 12.5 thousand higher than the capacity of the Earth. Immense funds have been invested globally in research of carbon nanomaterials and development of devices on their basis. Utilization of scientific advancements in the domestic industry will promote economic growth, innovation society building and market recovery in Ukraine.

    This article is the first to pose the question about selection of advanced developments projects on the basis of carbon nanomaterials using Monte Carlo method. Investment projects for high tech scientific developments (nanotubes, nanobatteries, supercapacitors, nanoaccumulators) are analyzed. Approaches to account for the risks of investment projects in the conditions of non-established stock market in Ukraine are shown. Use of Monte Carlo method as the most preferred approach to evaluating the impact of risks on decision-making in the conditions of uncertainty is substantiated. Current market prices on respective products are used as the input database. The Net Present Value (NPV) and the probability of its negative numbers are computed. The point of the project reliability at which the probability of negative NPV numbers approximates zero is found. It is shown that this point can be used as the benchmark, because the relative distance to it is the criterion for selection of the most acceptable version of project implementation. The projects with minimal expected risks of implementation are selected.

    Keywords: high-tech scientific developments, carbon nanomaterials, investment project, discounted cash flow method, Monte Carlo method, net present value, risks.

 

 

O. Yu. Redko,

DSc in Economics, Professor,

Member of the Audit Chamber of Ukraine,

First Pro-Rector, National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit,

E-mail: [email protected]

 

Ukrainian Audit in the Context of Statistics

 

    Statistical data on the situation and trends in the Ukrainian audit market are studied. The tendency of quantitative indicators of the audit market, including the number of auditors, the number of audit forms and private physical persons rendering audit services from 2011 to 2016 is shown. The data give evidence of the gradually declining audit community. The reasons behind this tendency are analyzed, and the deteriorating public attitude to this profession is underlined. The falling number of expected and reported inspections is observed. Data on the number of audit customers’ complaints on audit firms are given by regulatory body and audit entities with the dominating number of complaints. The need to create the database of official statistics on the audit market in Ukraine is emphasized, which key component has to be the set of indicators as the basis for the system of statistical monitoring of the audit market in Ukraine.

    Key words: audit, audit market, audit entities, statistics, Audit Chamber of Ukraine

 

 

M. V. Lesnikova,

PhD in Economics, Senior Researcher,

Head of Statistics and Analytics Department of Vocational Education,

Institute of Educational Analytics

of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine

 

Statistical Reporting in Vocational Education: Review and Ways of Improving

 

    Labor potential for the Ukrainian economy cannot be formed without professional training of staff. The system for professional technical education (PTE) consists of professional technical institutions in an industry, other enterprises, institutions, organizations, and education or supervisory offices charged with the administration of the former. The studies demonstrate that the existing PTE network in Ukraine is ineffective and distanced from the needs of regional economies in terms of their demography problems and needs of their labor markets. The abovementioned raises the importance of the issues of access to high quality and complete statistical information, incorporating a wide range of statistical indicators, first and foremost the ones on labor market performance, enabling for effective decision-making. The author’s review of the respective statistical reports shows that the existing statistical indicators form three linked modules (labor market, formation of PTE system, national accounts of education), containing quantitative data on network, enrolment, teaching personnel, material-technical and methodological provision of professional technical education institutions, PTE financing.

     Sufficiency of the existing statistical information is assessed by use of multi-step typology by the technology based on the statistics of non-numeric data. The data obtained from users and makers of PTE system in time of Turin process in 2016 show that the existing statistical reports fails to meet information needs of labor markets in high quality statistical data. According to the respondents, the main barrier is unstable economic situation; more than one quarter of the respondents (27%) mention irrelevance of the body supervising the collection of statistical data, and lack of advanced methodologies and methods for recording of jobs. A pressing problem is related with overlooking the scopes of shadow jobs and reluctance of a major part of employers to inform the development plans of their enterprises.

     Measures to improve the existing statistical reporting on PTE are as follows:

• introduce the questionnaire-based interviews of employers, to calculate the number of graduates kept on jobs, by specialty;

 • considering large number of small enterprises and private enterprises, improve the existing method for collection and processing of bid data;

• construct a standard method for calculating the rate of graduates’ job placement using the shadow economy ratio;

• create an integrated information and analytical system for PTE;

 • calculate the rate of apprenticeship passed, by specialty, ours of apprenticeship, and location of apprenticeship;

• introduce the monitoring-based assessment of PTE quality;

• develop the method for balancing the scopes of professional technical staff trained in education institutions and labor market needs.

     Key words: statistics of vocational education, labour market, unemployment, employers, satellite education account, operation of vocational education system, Turin process, typology

 

 

N. О. Ryngach,

DSc in Public Administration, Leading research fellow,

Ptoukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies

of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

 

Losses Caused by Suicide Mortality in Ukraine

 

     The purpose of this paper is to make an assessment of the Years of Potential Life Lost due to premature suicide mortality in Ukraine, with the conversion of the lost years into material equivalent. Based on the State Statistics Service of Ukraine data on the distribution of deaths by gender, age and causes of death and using macroeconomic indicators the author employs the method of potential demography to calculate the absolute number of Years of Potential Life Lost due to the premature death of this particular cause. It is demonstrated that prevention of deaths resulting from suicides has been recognized by now as a priority objective in the global agenda of health protection. This problem is of urgent importance for Ukraine, because the death rate from suicides here, being higher than in developed countries, is becoming an essential barrier on the way to sustained development by all its three components: economic, social and ecological.   

      The absolute number of the Years of Potential Life Lost due to premature suicide mortality is computed by the data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on break down of the dead by gender, age and reason of death, using the method of potential demography. It is shown that the number of the Years of Potential Life Lost of the Ukrainian population due to the above reason reached 133 296 thousand man-years in 2015. The essential disproportion of losses by gender is found: the total number of lost years of the expected life for men is more than fivefold higher than for women. The largest difference by gender is observed in the age group of 25–29, when the death rate from a suicide for men is more than nine fold higher than for women. Some of the computed indicators are compared with the respective figures of death rate from transport accidents. The monetary equivalent of GDP not generated due to the premature deaths of the Ukrainian population, resulting from a suicide, is computed for 2015: 6.16 billion UAH or more than 280 million USD.

       It is demonstrated that the death rate resulting from a suicide makes a heavy threat for health and welfare in Ukraine and an impediment for the achievement of Sustained Development Goals. Recommendations on minimization of real and potential losses caused by suicides are grounded. Of the measures aiming to reduce such losses, adaptation of the Antiterrorist Operation participants and forced migrants from the warfare zone to peaceful life, and the reaction on the manifestations of “Donbas syndrome” as a whole are emphasized. It is stressed that the state needs to be assigned the central role in the national strategy on prevention of suicides, because the contribution of the state is a determinant for the development and reinforcement of epidemiological surveillance, collection and dissemination of the data required for justifying the program activities, organization of cross-sectoral cooperation and interactions of all whom it concerns, etc.

     Key words: demographic losses, suicide, premature mortality, Years of Potential Life Lost, person-years, economic equivalent.

 

 

O. E. Lubenchenko,

PhD in Economics, Associate Professor,

 Acting Head of the National Center for Accounting and Audit,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit

 

Quality of Audit Services Rendered to Entities Engaged in

Foreign Economic Activities

 

       Ways to enhance the quality of audit in foreign economic activities are studied. It is stressed that foreign users of financing reporting tend to demand reliable and impartial data confirmed by an external auditor from domestic entities engaged in foreign economic activities. It is demonstrated that the quality of auditor services is assured at the level of a professional auditor and an audit firm, particularly through establishing quality control system based on the Code of Professional Ethics and the International Standards of Quality Control. A review of quality control components in the International Standard of Quality Control is made. It is demonstrated that the policy and the procedures for the assurance of independent internal control are based on ethical requirements to audit, which can be violated in the following circumstances: threat to own interest; threat of own assessment; threat to protection; threat to personal relations; threat of pressure.

      It is argued that an auditor needs to use his / her own procedures to decrease the threat of own interest, in order to assure quality of auditor services. A format for informing the management staff of an auditor firm on the existence of the above threats is proposed. As regards the threat of own assessment, an audit firm needs to draw a strict professional line between management staff and auditors, to ban participation in audit for persons whose operation is subject to audit etc. To reduce the threat of protection when rendering a service to the customer’s personnel, it is prohibited to qualify the facts in the customer’s operation as implicitly right, especially in relations with fiscal or controlling government bodies. Also, the obligatory procedure for preliminary scrutiny of operative documents, auditor’s reports and conclusions of an employee or director of a firm responsible for quality control is introduced. Threats of personal relations can be reduced by informing managers of an audit firm on their existence before a service is rendered. To have the treats of pressure reduced, employees of an auditor firm are obliged to urgently inform the management on the existence of threats related with the loss of independence (threats of pressure), while the firm’s management must urgently inform the client’s management on the pressure on auditors by the client’s personnel with mercenary or illicit (unlawful) purpose. The need to improve the system for quality control in audit firms, in order to supply users with high quality and reliable information, is emphasized.

    Key words: audit, quality of audit services, quality control, professional ethics, threats to independence, monitoring.

 

 

O. S. Bondaruk,

Postgraduate student,

National Academy of Statistics, Accounting and Audit,

E-mail: [email protected]

 

Budget Interests in the System of Economic Security of the State

 

       The necessity of intensification of research studies in the sphere of economic security of the state appears in Ukraine under the condition of the development of market relations. In this case, instruments of the improvement of the level of economic security in the budget sphere become very significant.

    The purpose of the article is to determine, concretize, and interpret budget interests and risks in the system of ensuring economic security of the state.

    Results of the article are analyzed theoretical basis of economic security in the correlation with budget interests. It examines theoretical aspects of key elements of economic security in the budget sphere – budget interests and budgets risks. It proves that categories ‘budget interests’ and ‘budget risks’ take up key positions in the theory of economic security. As they play a leading role in the process of the strategy choice of its ensuring. It determines the category ‘budget interests’ as the combination of budget needs of carriers of interests. This fact is a driving force of budget activities entities, directed to getting definite benefits through the budget for providing the operation and possibility of the successful development of the society, state, juridical and natural persons.

     It determines a budget need as the necessity in cost budget for the improvement and support of a definite level of an individual vital activity, social group, society, as well as the usual functioning of the state and juridical persons.

     Key words: economic security, budget interests, budget risks, budget system, economic mechanism, institutional mechanism.

 

 

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.11.2018

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